Friday, November 27, 2009

'Tis the season for Grand Prix Final withdrawals

With the six regular season events all wrapped up, the Grand Prix Final is set to take place next weekend in Tokyo, Japan. The top six point-scorers in each discipline will compete, minus a few exceptions.

Americans Tanith Belbin and Ben Agosto are out of the dance event after Tanith required emergency oral surgery this week. Though they have received a lot of flack for pulling out of the Final, I don't fault them at all. It can take up to a few weeks to recover from wisdom tooth surgery, and if they can't be at their absolute best, there is no reason why they should compete and risk a poor performance. Their scores this season rank them below Canadians Tessa Virtue and Scott Moir, as well as U.S. champions Meryl Davis and Charlie White. Hopefully Belbin and Agosto will rework their programs and make sure their levels are up to par so they can compete with their two younger rivals.

Belbin and Agosto's replacements, Jana Khokhlova and Sergei Novitski, are also out of the Final, as she has come down with the flu. Canadians Vanessa Crone and Paul Porier, the second alternates, will compete in their place.

France's Brian Joubert is also out of the men's event after suffering a cut on his foot in training. He is replaced by Tomas Verner of the Czech Republic, the silver medalist from the Trophee Eric Bompard event earlier this fall.

Grand Prix Final Competitors:
Men: Nobunari Oda (JPN), Evan Lysacek (USA), Daisuke Takahashi (JPN), Jeremy Abbott (USA), Johnny Weir (USA), Tomas Verner (CZE)
Ladies: Yu-Na Kim (KOR), Miki Ando (JPN), Joannie Rochette (CAN), Alena Leonova (RUS), Ashley Wagner (USA), Akiko Suzuki (JPN)
Pairs: Shen/Zhao (CHN), Savchenko/Szolkowy (GER), Pang/Tong (CHN), Kavaguti/Smirnov (RUS), Mukhortova/Trankov (RUS), Zhang/Zhang (CHN)
Dance: Virtue/Moir (CAN), Davis/White (USA), Pechalat/Bourzat (FRA), Kerr/Kerr (GBR), Cappellini/Lanotte (ITA), Crone/Poirier (CAN)

Wednesday, November 18, 2009

Flatt stakes claim for an Olympic medal

Two very important things were learned at last weekend's Skate America competition in Lake Placid: 1) Rachael Flatt is looking more and more like an Olympic podium threat, and 2) Yu-Na Kim is not unbeatable -- er, sorta.

The two entered Sunday's free skate ranked first and second, with Kim holding a massive 18 point lead over her young American challenger. Though she still won the overall competition by a comfortable 13 points, Kim lost the final round to Flatt by nearly five points -- the first time she has defeated the World champion Kim in any segment of any event.

After falling on her triple flip-triple toe loop combination in the short program, Flatt rallied in her long program, nailing her opening double Axel straight out of a spiral and then going on to hit the triple/triple (of which she received full credit and a positive Grade of Execution) along with five other solid triple jumps. Her final footwork sequence showcased solid edges and an incredible amount of joy, bringing the audience to its feet. Her only real glitch occurred on her final combination spin, which she received no credit for because she re-centered the second part of the spin too far away from the first. Nonetheless, Flatt recorded a new personal best free skate score of 116.11 points, and an overall tally of 174.91, making her the third highest scoring lady in the world so far this season.

Kim had what was probably her worst free skate since the 2007 World championships. Her triple Lutz-triple toe loop combination was underrotated and she went down on the triple flip, a jump that also gave her problems at her first Grand Prix event in Paris. Kim's program to George Gershwin music also had a few other minor stumbles and lacked her trademark spark and attack. In a season where she has already set three new world records, her 111.70 free skate feels like a disappointment.

While Flatt will probably just miss out on qualifying for the Grand Prix Final, Kim will be there, hoping to avenge her poor skate in Lake Placid. This weekend's last Grand Prix event, Skate Canada, will officially determine the rest of the Finals fields. In the ladies event, Canadian Joannie Rochette will need to place in the top 2 to have a shot, and Japan's Akiko Suzuki needs to finish no worse than fourth to qualify. Americans Mirai Nagasu, Caroline Zhang and Alissa Czisny will also try to qualify, though it is unlikely that any will advance to the Final.

Thursday, November 12, 2009

Lysacek, Flatt looking to rebound at Skate America

After less-than-perfect starts to the season, Americans Evan Lysacek and Rachael Flatt look to rebound this weekend at Skate America, the fifth stop on the 2009-10 ISU Grand Prix of Figure Skating Series.

Lysacek is coming off a silver medal finish at the Cup of China two weeks ago, where he lost to Japan's Nobunari Oda by just over 7 points. While he still scored a respectable 232.17 points there, he also had two jumps downgraded. Nonetheless, the gold medal is his to lose this weekend in Lake Placid, as his main competition will come from the Czech Republic's Tomas Verner, the silver medalist from the Trophee Eric Bompard event a month ago. Lysacek has said that he will not be putting the quad in either of his programs here, instead opting to save it for the U.S. National championships and the Olympic Games later this season.

Flatt also began her season two weeks ago at the Cup of China, though she was only able to manage a disappointing 4th place. A podium finish there was definitely the expectation, and now her chance to make the Grand Prix Final is all but gone (she would need two win this competition to qualify for the Final, which is virtually impossible with World champ Yu-Na Kim in the field). Still, Flatt definitely gets better as the season progresses, and with more time to train her programs and feedback from the judges in China, she is the clear silver-medal favorite.

Other contenders in the men's event include fellow Americans Brandon Mroz and Ryan Bradley, while the United States' Alexe Gilles will battle for bronze with a slew of international competitors like Fumie Suguri, Susanna Poykio and Elene Gedevanishvili.

In pairs, look for China's Xue Shen and Hongbo Zhao to claim gold like they did in China two weeks ago, with teammates Dan Zhang and Hao Zhang the front runners for second place. Americans Keauna McLaughlin and Rockne Brubaker, coming off a bronze medal at the Cup of Russia, will have to contend with both Tatiana Volosozhar and Stanislav Morozov, and Meagan Duhamel and Craig Buntin for the third spot on the podium.

Tanith Belbin and Ben Agosto should easily win their second Grand Prix title of the season, and I predict that Russia's Jana Khokhlova and Sergei Novitski will take second, with Italy's Anna Cappellini and Luca Lanotte winning bronze. Reigning World Junior champs Madison Chock and Greg Zuerlein out of Canton, Mich., have a great shot at a top-five finish here after placing 8th at their senior international debut at the Cup of China.

Monday, November 9, 2009

Injured Cohen out of this week's Skate America

Sasha Cohen withdrew from Skate America today, citing a nagging case of tendinitis in her right calf. The 2006 Olympic silver medalist also withdrew from her first planned Grand Prix event - Trophee Eric Bompard - a month ago, meaning that her first event of the season will be the U.S. Nationals in January. This certainly doesn't bode well for her hopes of making a third Olympic team.

While there's no doubt that a five-triple jump Cohen could be competitive with many of the top ladies today, she needed to test her programs in front of an international panel of judges and in front of an audience. After a three-year hiatus from competitive skating, it was crucial that she get back into a competitive mindset, and her two fall events would have given her the perfect opportunity to do that. Now, should she show up at Nationals, Cohen will be competing against the top U.S. ladies for only two Olympic spots - ladies that have been gaining mileage on their programs this season, feedback from judges, and confidence in their ability to perform them well. I know injuries happen, but Cohen should have started her comeback earlier than this past June if she hopes to make a return trip to the Games.

Even if she shows up in Spokane and wins a medal, there's certainly no guarantee that she would be granted a spot on the team. This year, U.S. Figure Skating will not choose the Olympic team based solely on the results of Nationals (not even the gold medalist is guaranteed a spot). Instead, the team will be chosen based upon the results of a number of events: the Grand Prix series, the Grand Prix Final (should any qualify), and at last year's World championships. Based upon this criteria, Ashley Wagner currently looks to be one of the front-runners for the team, as she has medaled in both of her Grand Prix events and has an excellent chance at making the Final in Tokyo in December. Rachael Flatt, although not stellar at the Cup of China, looks poised to make the team as well, thanks to her consistency and a solid fifth-place finish at her first-ever Worlds last March.

Flatt competes again at Skate America this weekend, where her main competition will come from Korea's Yu-Na Kim. A silver-medal finish in Lake Placid, NY, will further increase her chances of making the team, though she, and the rest of the American women, will still need to deliver at Nationals.

As for Cohen, her comeback just got more complicated, though not entirely impossible. After all, she does have the most experience of any of the currently competing U.S. ladies and she is the only one with Olympic experience. On the other hand, she has never been one to handle pressure well, and if she's still struggling with injury come January, the chances that she'll be on top of her game are slim.

I can't think of a year when the ladies event was more unpredictable than it is this year...

Friday, November 6, 2009

Joubert first after exciting men's short program; Wagner wins round one in Nagano

Talk about two extremely different events.

Frenchman Brian Joubert rebounded from a disastrous outing in Paris three weeks ago to win the men's short program at the NHK Trophy in Nagano, Japan. His score of 85.35 is the top men's score this season, a score he achieved largely due to the strength of his quadruple toe-loop/triple toe-loop combination. He currently sits 2.35 points ahead of American Jeremy Abbott, who beat his personal best short program score by nearly five points. Abbott's innovative program to an electric guitar cover of the Beatles' "A Day in the Life" is absolutely amazing, and there is no way his Program Component Scores should have been third-best behind Joubert and Japan's Daisuke Takahashi, who had a rough landing on his solo triple Lutz and a hard fall in his circular footwork sequence.

Three-time U.S. champion Johnny Weir is third after the short, landing all four of his planned triple jumps and earning a new season's best score of 78.35. Takahashi, the 2007 World silver medalist is close behind with 78.18 points, while teammate Takahiko Kozuka, who won silver two weeks ago in Russia, is fifth with 74.05 points. American Adam Rippon - who turns 20 next week - took a spill on a triple Axel and is currently 8th, some 11.20 points out of medal contention.

With a combined seven World championship medals among them and numerous Grand Prix titles, the men's event seemed more like a final flight at the World championships than only the fourth event of the season. It was an entirely different story for the ladies, however.

American teen Ashley Wagner nabbed the top spot after the short program, defeating 2007 World champion and current World bronze medalist Miki Ando. While Wagner wasn't completely clean (her double Axel was severely underrotated), her skate was still enough to earn a season's best score and beat out Ando, who took a spill on her triple flip and quite possibly underrotated her triple Lutz also. Yukari Nakano is third after bailing out of her triple Lutz and not completing the combination. Reigning European champion Laura Lepisto of Finland is fourth, and Russia's Alena Leonova rounds out the top five with 52.34 points after falling on her triple Lutz (a fall that was timed perfectly to the music, though).

The event was so lackluster that not one of the ladies in the field even managed to break 30 points for her Technical Elements Score. I know the Olympics are still three months away, but it is already November and still not one skater from any country has proven that she is able to compete with Korea's Yu-Na Kim. I know injuries happen and "the ice is slippery," but it is nearly impossible to predict who will medal come February.

Japan's Akiko Suzuki won the Cup of China last week with two nearly perfect programs, but she has never even been to a World Championship before. Will she be able to handle the pressure of the Olympics if she makes the team? Mao Asada has had a horrific fall season, but will she be regrouped and ready by the time the Japanese Nationals come around at the end of December? Could she be left off the Olympic team if she continues to skate poorly?

The North American outlook isn't very clear, either. Canada's Joannie Rochette won a World silver medal last season, but her performances in China last week were far from world-class. Was it just jetlag or is she already feeling the pressure this season? If that's the case, how will she be able to handle the pressure of competing at home in Vancouver? The American ladies picture is still cloudy as ever, with Rachael Flatt, Mirai Nagasu, Caroline Zhang and Alissa Czisny all underperforming so far this season. Could Wagner be the strongest candidate for the team? And lets not even discuss the European ladies, none of which look remotely close to Olympic caliber yet, either.

There's so many questions yet to be answered. The rest of the Grand Prix season will be incredibly interesting, all leading up to what may be the most unpredictable Olympic Games ever. Stay tuned!