Sasha Cohen withdrew from Skate America today, citing a nagging case of tendinitis in her right calf. The 2006 Olympic silver medalist also withdrew from her first planned Grand Prix event - Trophee Eric Bompard - a month ago, meaning that her first event of the season will be the U.S. Nationals in January. This certainly doesn't bode well for her hopes of making a third Olympic team.
While there's no doubt that a five-triple jump Cohen could be competitive with many of the top ladies today, she needed to test her programs in front of an international panel of judges and in front of an audience. After a three-year hiatus from competitive skating, it was crucial that she get back into a competitive mindset, and her two fall events would have given her the perfect opportunity to do that. Now, should she show up at Nationals, Cohen will be competing against the top U.S. ladies for only two Olympic spots - ladies that have been gaining mileage on their programs this season, feedback from judges, and confidence in their ability to perform them well. I know injuries happen, but Cohen should have started her comeback earlier than this past June if she hopes to make a return trip to the Games.
Even if she shows up in Spokane and wins a medal, there's certainly no guarantee that she would be granted a spot on the team. This year, U.S. Figure Skating will not choose the Olympic team based solely on the results of Nationals (not even the gold medalist is guaranteed a spot). Instead, the team will be chosen based upon the results of a number of events: the Grand Prix series, the Grand Prix Final (should any qualify), and at last year's World championships. Based upon this criteria, Ashley Wagner currently looks to be one of the front-runners for the team, as she has medaled in both of her Grand Prix events and has an excellent chance at making the Final in Tokyo in December. Rachael Flatt, although not stellar at the Cup of China, looks poised to make the team as well, thanks to her consistency and a solid fifth-place finish at her first-ever Worlds last March.
Flatt competes again at Skate America this weekend, where her main competition will come from Korea's Yu-Na Kim. A silver-medal finish in Lake Placid, NY, will further increase her chances of making the team, though she, and the rest of the American women, will still need to deliver at Nationals.
As for Cohen, her comeback just got more complicated, though not entirely impossible. After all, she does have the most experience of any of the currently competing U.S. ladies and she is the only one with Olympic experience. On the other hand, she has never been one to handle pressure well, and if she's still struggling with injury come January, the chances that she'll be on top of her game are slim.
I can't think of a year when the ladies event was more unpredictable than it is this year...
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