This hasn't exactly been a dream year for Japan's Mao Asada.
After winning the Japanese title last December, she was beaten by both Yu-Na Kim and Joannie Rochette at the Four Continents Championships, and placed a disappointing 4th at the World Championships.
Coming into this season, Asada seemed confident about her chances, but her performances at the Trophee Eric Bompard and Rostelecom Cup events in October were among the worst of her entire career. She could only muster up a 6th place finish in Russia, dashing any hope she had at making the Grand Prix Final in Tokyo earlier this month.
Skating fans on the Web and insiders around the world have been perplexed as to what her troubles are this season. Mao doesn't appear to be injured, nor is she completely unable to land her jumps (her practices at events this season have been stellar). Rather, the problem seems to lie with her competitive focus. Four years ago, Asada defeated World champ Irina Slutskaya at the Grand Prix Final, and though she was too young for the Torino Games in 2006, she established herself as the one to watch during this quadrennium.
Four years older, wiser, and with a World title under her belt, Asada's Olympic time has finally come, but will she be ready? The glare of the Japanese media spotlight is no doubt blinding at times, and the pressure for her and teammates Miki Ando, Yukari Nakano, Akiko Suzuki and Fumie Suguri has got to be immense. Will Mao follow in the footsteps of Midori Ito in 1992, a heavy favorite for Olympic gold yet burdened by the pressure of her home country?
I hope not, as Mao has so many wonderful qualities and is so capable of being a legitimate threat to Kim. However, her programs this season are nothing special, and they hide what makes Mao so great: her elegance, flow, speed, and clean lines.
It will be interesting to see whether she can rebound from a horrific season thus far and recapture some confidence this week at the Japanese Championships. Three Japanese women will make the trip to Vancouver, and while even a sub-par Asada is likely to go, she needs two solid performances here if she is to carry any momentum into the Games. World champion Kim has shown that she too is vulnerable this season, losing the free skate to Rachael Flatt at Skate America and the short program to Ando at the Grand Prix Final.
Mao Asada can be the 2010 Olympic champion, but not without drastic improvement. With uninspired, unartistic, and technically weak performances like she displayed on the Grand Prix Series, a medal of any color in Vancouver is likely out of the question.
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Predictions for the Japanese Nationals: (in no particular order): Ando, Suzuki, and Asada. Nakano was left off the team four years ago in a (controversial) decision, so it's heartbreaking to think that she could (and probably will) be left off the team once again in favor of Suzuki who has been having an incredible season, placing 3rd at the Grand Prix Final. Suguri, a two-time Olympian, should be a non-factor this year.
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