Vancouver 2010: Olympic medal picks

With only 5 days until the start of the 2010 Winter Olympic Games, it's a good time for me to make my Olympic figure skating gold, silver, and bronze medal predictions. Enjoy!

Pairs
Gold: Xue Shen & Hongbo Zhao (China)
Silver: Aliona Savchenko & Robin Szolkowy (Germany)
Bronze: Qing Pang & Jian Tong (China)
4th: Maria Mukhortova & Maxim Trankov (Russia)

Shen & Zhao are without a doubt both the sentimental and logical favorites heading into the Games. The duo has won the past two Olympic bronze medals, as well as three World titles (2002, 2003, 2007). Their return to competition this year has been nothing short of magnificent, as they have won the Cup of China, Skate America, and the Grand Prix Final, recording the highest total score of any pair in the world this season (214.25). Shen & Zhao look primed to take Olympic gold and secure their place in history as one of the greatest teams of all time.

Germany's Savchenko & Szolkowy have won the past two World titles, and their silver medal finish at the European Championships a few weeks ago garnered the third-best overall pairs score on the season (211.72). Their innovative programs and lifts allow them to gain high Program Component Scores and positive Grades of Execution from the judges. While the Chinese will probably prevail based on their technical difficulty and consistency, Savchenko & Szolkowy definitely have the goods to challenge them, but silver seems more likely this time around.

The second Chinese team, Pang & Tong, will battle for the bronze medal with a number of challengers, including European champs Yuko Kavaguti & Alexander Smirnov of Russia and European bronze medalists Mukhortova & Trankov (also of Russia).

Pang & Tong's Chinese teammates, 2006 Olympic silver medalists Dan Zhang & Hao Zhang, could also contend for the bronze, though it is unlikely they will end up on the podium. Pang & Tong, the '06 World champs, were second to Shen & Zhao at the Grand Prix Final, and they have more impressive consistency and technical elements than their Russian challengers. Russian or Soviet pairs have won the last 12 Olympic gold medals in pairs skating (for those mathematically challenged, this dates back to 1964). Though impressive, the streak is unlikely to continue this year.

The American champions, Caydee Denney and Jeremy Barrett, will look to build upon their 9th place finish at Worlds last season. They are perhaps the most consistent team in the competition, though their Program Component Scores will not be competitive with the top 6. Look for them to finish around 7th/8th, with the other U.S. team, Amanda Evora and Mark Ladwig, finishing 10th-14th.

Men
Gold: Evgeny Plushenko (Russia)
Silver: Evan Lysacek (United States)
Bronze: Jeremy Abbott (United States)
4th: Patrick Chan (Canada)

2006 Olympic champion Plushenko is back to competition this season after nearly four years off. While I am not a Plushenko fan, he is the gold-medal favorite due to his consistency and mastery of the quadruple jump. Though his jumping is impressive, the rest of his skating is not, as his programs lack transitions and any real choreography. Furthermore, his spins also leave much to be desired.

Lysacek, the reigning World champion, should rebound nicely after a lackluster free skate at the U.S. Championships a few weeks ago. He usually peaks after Nationals, which is good news for his Olympic medal bid. His quadruple jump will likely not make an appearance in Vancouver, but his season's best score of 249.45 points (less than 6 points behind Plushenko) makes him a very serious medal threat. If Plushenko's quad goes M.I.A. during the Games, Lysacek could find himself on the top of the podium.

Two-time and reigning United States champ Abbott has been building nicely so far this season. He took gold at Skate Canada, was 4th at the Grand Prix Final (but 2nd in the free skate there), and demolished the competition at Nationals, beating silver medalist Lysacek by more than 25 points. When he's on, Abbott can be tough to beat, and he is armed with a quadruple toe loop. However, nerves can often get the best of him, and he could realistically finish anywhere from 1st-10th in Vancouver.

Other medal challengers include Canada's Patrick Chan, the '09 World silver medalist who has been dealing with injury this season. He could only muster up a 6th place finish at Skate Canada in November, but looked to be in better form at the Canadian Championships last month. The hometown crowd will either make him or break him. American Johnny Weir is a longshot to medal but could sneak in for bronze if others falter. France's Brian Joubert and Japanese stars Daisuke Takahashi and Nobunari Oda are also very legitimate medal threats in what is an unbelievably strong men's field -- the deepest men's field in Olympic history.

Ice Dance
Gold: Tessa Virtue & Scott Moir (Canada)
Silver: Meryl Davis & Charlie White (United States)
Bronze: Tanith Belbin & Ben Agosto (United States)
4th: Oksana Domnina & Maxim Shabalin (Russia)
5th: Isabelle Delobel & Olivier Schoenfelder (France)

The ice dancing event in Vancouver could prove to be the most unpredictable of all the skating events, with five teams that could realistically win gold. The home team of Virtue & Moir have medaled at Worlds the past two seasons, and are armed with a gorgeous free dance this year. While they likely won't lead after the compulsory dance or the original dance, I can see them clinching gold in the final segment on home ice.

Davis & White, fresh off a successful defense of their title at the U.S. Championships, look ready to medal as well. They train with the Canadians in Michigan, though the two teams are quite different stylistically. Davis & White's amazing "Bollywood" original dance is the best of the season, and it could help them make up ground after the compulsory dance (where they most likely won't be higher than 5th). I can see them moving up to 2nd overall with their great free dance. They, along with Virtue & Moir, have been in another league points-wise so far this season. If the judging is fair, those two teams should really be top-2, in either order.

2006 silver medalists Belbin & Agosto probably won't upgrade to gold this time around. In fact, they will be lucky to stay on the podium altogether. While their programs are far better and more polished than the Russian team of Domnina & Shabalin, the judges could very well give the nod to the Russians because they are the current World champions.

A Russian or Soviet team has won 7 of the 9 Olympic gold medals in ice dance since it became an Olympic sport in 1976 (they have also medaled in every Olympics since then, though that streak is in jeopardy this year). In fact, the Europeans could potentially be shut out of the ice dance medals, with the French team of Delobel & Schoenfelder playing catch-up after being out of competition since December 2008. Delobel had a baby last September after recovering from shoulder surgery a few months prior, and while they are great in the compulsory dance (the first phase of competition), their original and free dances have yet to be performed internationally this season. Debuting two new programs at the Olympics is a daunting task for anyone, even the '08 World champs.

The third American team of Emily Samuelson and Evan Bates are poised for a top-10 finish, but could go even higher than that. They are the future of U.S. ice dancing and will likely be medal threats four years from now.

Ladies
Gold: Yu-Na Kim (South Korea)
Silver: Mao Asada (Japan)
Bronze: Miki Ando (Japan)
4th: Rachael Flatt (United States)
5th: Joannie Rochette (Canada)
6th: Akiko Suzuki (Japan) or Mirai Nagasu (United States)

Kim is the most dominant ladies skater of the past quadrennium, and the reigning World champ has her sights set on gold in Vancouver. While she has faltered somewhat this season, Kim holds the top three overall ladies scores on the season, including her world-record score of 210.03 points. It would probably take one mistake in the short program and at least two/three mistakes in the long program for her to be beaten.

The Japanese are pinning their hopes on Asada, the 2008 World champion who has struggled immensely so far this season. She has been prone to numerous jump downgrades, including downgrades on her signature triple Axel, a jump she will need to hit perfectly if she has any hopes of defeating Kim. The key for Asada is to deliver a clean short program to keep herself in medal contention. She has not been clean in the short program all season, and mistakes like the ones she made at the Rostelecom Cup or the Four Continents Championships last month could leave her out of the final group heading into the free skate.

The battle for bronze is wide open. 2007 World champion Ando has the is definitely in the mix, and she could even challenge her teammate Asada for silver. American champion Flatt has a shot too, especially if she can capitalize on her consistency if (when?) others falter. Rochette, one of Canada's best female skaters of all time, was runner-up to Kim last year at Worlds, but has had a shaky season thus far. If she can handle the pressure of skating for a medal at home, she will make a run for the podium as well. Grand Prix Final bronze medalist Suzuki of Japan has proven herself to be a great free skater, though like Asada, she will need to be absolutely clean in the short program if she hopes to medal.

And then there's 2010 U.S. silver medalist Nagasu, fresh off two stunning programs at Nationals. Her improvements under new coach Frank Carroll have been astounding, and her short program scores this season have been huge (62.20 at the Cup of China and 70+ at Nationals). Nagasu could very well find herself skating in the last group for the free skate, and if she can minimize her under-rotation problems, a bronze is well within her grasp.

The best shot at a European medal will come from Italy's Carolina Kostner, 2nd in the World in 2008, and Finland's Laura Lepisto, who has great presence on the ice but lacks consistency and the more difficult triples. Both skaters should slate in around 7th-10th after the ice settles in Vancouver.