Friday, February 19, 2010

Lysacek perseveres for Olympic gold

Reigning World champion Evan Lysacek of the United States laid down a flawless free skate Thursday night to win Olympic gold and defeat defending champ Evgeni Plushenko of Russia by 1.86 points.

Lysacek hit 8 solid triple jumps, but it was his high-scoring spins and footwork that gave him the slight edge over Plushenko. The 27-year old Russian landed a quad toe-triple toe combination but struggled to save the landing of his triple Axel and triple Lutz jumps. His spins and footwork were slower and less impressive than Lysacek's, and his failure to do a three-jump combination might have cost him his second Olympic title.

With his victory, Lysacek, 24, becomes the 13th American to win figure skating gold, and the first since Sarah Hughes won in Salt Lake City in 2002. He is also the first reigning World champion since Scott Hamilton in 1984 to win at the Games, and the first U.S. man to win since Brian Boitano 22-years ago in Calgary.

Japan's comeback kid Daisuke Takahashi won the bronze with a wonderful free skate after missing all of last season due to knee surgery. American Johnny Weir nailed all of his jumps but wasn't able to pull up from 6th place overall. U.S. champion Jeremy Abbott rebounded nicely from a poor short program, nailing 6 solid triple jumps and climbing from 15th place to 9th overall.

Sunday, February 7, 2010

Vancouver 2010: Olympic medal picks

With only 5 days until the start of the 2010 Winter Olympic Games, it's a good time for me to make my Olympic figure skating gold, silver, and bronze medal predictions. Enjoy!

Pairs
Gold: Xue Shen & Hongbo Zhao (China)
Silver: Aliona Savchenko & Robin Szolkowy (Germany)
Bronze: Qing Pang & Jian Tong (China)
4th: Maria Mukhortova & Maxim Trankov (Russia)

Shen & Zhao are without a doubt both the sentimental and logical favorites heading into the Games. The duo has won the past two Olympic bronze medals, as well as three World titles (2002, 2003, 2007). Their return to competition this year has been nothing short of magnificent, as they have won the Cup of China, Skate America, and the Grand Prix Final, recording the highest total score of any pair in the world this season (214.25). Shen & Zhao look primed to take Olympic gold and secure their place in history as one of the greatest teams of all time.

Germany's Savchenko & Szolkowy have won the past two World titles, and their silver medal finish at the European Championships a few weeks ago garnered the third-best overall pairs score on the season (211.72). Their innovative programs and lifts allow them to gain high Program Component Scores and positive Grades of Execution from the judges. While the Chinese will probably prevail based on their technical difficulty and consistency, Savchenko & Szolkowy definitely have the goods to challenge them, but silver seems more likely this time around.

The second Chinese team, Pang & Tong, will battle for the bronze medal with a number of challengers, including European champs Yuko Kavaguti & Alexander Smirnov of Russia and European bronze medalists Mukhortova & Trankov (also of Russia).

Pang & Tong's Chinese teammates, 2006 Olympic silver medalists Dan Zhang & Hao Zhang, could also contend for the bronze, though it is unlikely they will end up on the podium. Pang & Tong, the '06 World champs, were second to Shen & Zhao at the Grand Prix Final, and they have more impressive consistency and technical elements than their Russian challengers. Russian or Soviet pairs have won the last 12 Olympic gold medals in pairs skating (for those mathematically challenged, this dates back to 1964). Though impressive, the streak is unlikely to continue this year.

The American champions, Caydee Denney and Jeremy Barrett, will look to build upon their 9th place finish at Worlds last season. They are perhaps the most consistent team in the competition, though their Program Component Scores will not be competitive with the top 6. Look for them to finish around 7th/8th, with the other U.S. team, Amanda Evora and Mark Ladwig, finishing 10th-14th.

Men
Gold: Evgeny Plushenko (Russia)
Silver: Evan Lysacek (United States)
Bronze: Jeremy Abbott (United States)
4th: Patrick Chan (Canada)

2006 Olympic champion Plushenko is back to competition this season after nearly four years off. While I am not a Plushenko fan, he is the gold-medal favorite due to his consistency and mastery of the quadruple jump. Though his jumping is impressive, the rest of his skating is not, as his programs lack transitions and any real choreography. Furthermore, his spins also leave much to be desired.

Lysacek, the reigning World champion, should rebound nicely after a lackluster free skate at the U.S. Championships a few weeks ago. He usually peaks after Nationals, which is good news for his Olympic medal bid. His quadruple jump will likely not make an appearance in Vancouver, but his season's best score of 249.45 points (less than 6 points behind Plushenko) makes him a very serious medal threat. If Plushenko's quad goes M.I.A. during the Games, Lysacek could find himself on the top of the podium.

Two-time and reigning United States champ Abbott has been building nicely so far this season. He took gold at Skate Canada, was 4th at the Grand Prix Final (but 2nd in the free skate there), and demolished the competition at Nationals, beating silver medalist Lysacek by more than 25 points. When he's on, Abbott can be tough to beat, and he is armed with a quadruple toe loop. However, nerves can often get the best of him, and he could realistically finish anywhere from 1st-10th in Vancouver.

Other medal challengers include Canada's Patrick Chan, the '09 World silver medalist who has been dealing with injury this season. He could only muster up a 6th place finish at Skate Canada in November, but looked to be in better form at the Canadian Championships last month. The hometown crowd will either make him or break him. American Johnny Weir is a longshot to medal but could sneak in for bronze if others falter. France's Brian Joubert and Japanese stars Daisuke Takahashi and Nobunari Oda are also very legitimate medal threats in what is an unbelievably strong men's field -- the deepest men's field in Olympic history.

Ice Dance
Gold: Tessa Virtue & Scott Moir (Canada)
Silver: Meryl Davis & Charlie White (United States)
Bronze: Tanith Belbin & Ben Agosto (United States)
4th: Oksana Domnina & Maxim Shabalin (Russia)
5th: Isabelle Delobel & Olivier Schoenfelder (France)

The ice dancing event in Vancouver could prove to be the most unpredictable of all the skating events, with five teams that could realistically win gold. The home team of Virtue & Moir have medaled at Worlds the past two seasons, and are armed with a gorgeous free dance this year. While they likely won't lead after the compulsory dance or the original dance, I can see them clinching gold in the final segment on home ice.

Davis & White, fresh off a successful defense of their title at the U.S. Championships, look ready to medal as well. They train with the Canadians in Michigan, though the two teams are quite different stylistically. Davis & White's amazing "Bollywood" original dance is the best of the season, and it could help them make up ground after the compulsory dance (where they most likely won't be higher than 5th). I can see them moving up to 2nd overall with their great free dance. They, along with Virtue & Moir, have been in another league points-wise so far this season. If the judging is fair, those two teams should really be top-2, in either order.

2006 silver medalists Belbin & Agosto probably won't upgrade to gold this time around. In fact, they will be lucky to stay on the podium altogether. While their programs are far better and more polished than the Russian team of Domnina & Shabalin, the judges could very well give the nod to the Russians because they are the current World champions.

A Russian or Soviet team has won 7 of the 9 Olympic gold medals in ice dance since it became an Olympic sport in 1976 (they have also medaled in every Olympics since then, though that streak is in jeopardy this year). In fact, the Europeans could potentially be shut out of the ice dance medals, with the French team of Delobel & Schoenfelder playing catch-up after being out of competition since December 2008. Delobel had a baby last September after recovering from shoulder surgery a few months prior, and while they are great in the compulsory dance (the first phase of competition), their original and free dances have yet to be performed internationally this season. Debuting two new programs at the Olympics is a daunting task for anyone, even the '08 World champs.

The third American team of Emily Samuelson and Evan Bates are poised for a top-10 finish, but could go even higher than that. They are the future of U.S. ice dancing and will likely be medal threats four years from now.

Ladies
Gold: Yu-Na Kim (South Korea)
Silver: Mao Asada (Japan)
Bronze: Miki Ando (Japan)
4th: Rachael Flatt (United States)
5th: Joannie Rochette (Canada)
6th: Akiko Suzuki (Japan) or Mirai Nagasu (United States)

Kim is the most dominant ladies skater of the past quadrennium, and the reigning World champ has her sights set on gold in Vancouver. While she has faltered somewhat this season, Kim holds the top three overall ladies scores on the season, including her world-record score of 210.03 points. It would probably take one mistake in the short program and at least two/three mistakes in the long program for her to be beaten.

The Japanese are pinning their hopes on Asada, the 2008 World champion who has struggled immensely so far this season. She has been prone to numerous jump downgrades, including downgrades on her signature triple Axel, a jump she will need to hit perfectly if she has any hopes of defeating Kim. The key for Asada is to deliver a clean short program to keep herself in medal contention. She has not been clean in the short program all season, and mistakes like the ones she made at the Rostelecom Cup or the Four Continents Championships last month could leave her out of the final group heading into the free skate.

The battle for bronze is wide open. 2007 World champion Ando has the is definitely in the mix, and she could even challenge her teammate Asada for silver. American champion Flatt has a shot too, especially if she can capitalize on her consistency if (when?) others falter. Rochette, one of Canada's best female skaters of all time, was runner-up to Kim last year at Worlds, but has had a shaky season thus far. If she can handle the pressure of skating for a medal at home, she will make a run for the podium as well. Grand Prix Final bronze medalist Suzuki of Japan has proven herself to be a great free skater, though like Asada, she will need to be absolutely clean in the short program if she hopes to medal.

And then there's 2010 U.S. silver medalist Nagasu, fresh off two stunning programs at Nationals. Her improvements under new coach Frank Carroll have been astounding, and her short program scores this season have been huge (62.20 at the Cup of China and 70+ at Nationals). Nagasu could very well find herself skating in the last group for the free skate, and if she can minimize her under-rotation problems, a bronze is well within her grasp.

The best shot at a European medal will come from Italy's Carolina Kostner, 2nd in the World in 2008, and Finland's Laura Lepisto, who has great presence on the ice but lacks consistency and the more difficult triples. Both skaters should slate in around 7th-10th after the ice settles in Vancouver.

Thursday, February 4, 2010

Rippon, Asada golden at Four Continents

America's Adam Rippon jumped from 7th after the short program to take the gold medal last weekend at the Four Continents Figure Skating Championships in Jeonju City, Korea, while Japanese star Mao Asada also rallied from a subpar short program to win the ladies title in the final Olympic tune-up.

Rippon, who failed to qualify for the Olympic team last month at the U.S. Championships (he placed 5th there and is the second alternate for the Games), showed that he will be a skater to beat in the next four years leading up to the 2014 Games. He sailed through 8 triple jumps, including 2 triple Axels, and laid down the performance of the night to upset Canadian Kevin Reynolds, the leader after the short program.

Rippon's teammate Ryan Bradley was 8th after a disappointing short program, but recorded the third-best free skate en route to a 5th place finish overall. It has been a difficult few weeks for the crowd-favorite Bradley after he too failed to land a spot on the U.S. Olympic team, finishing 4th in Spokane. He is the first alternate for the Vancouver Games, though it is unlikely he will get the call to compete. Bradley has been on the senior international scene since 2000, and this Four Continents Championship could very well have been his final competitive appearance.

The third American entry, Brandon Mroz (6th at the Nationals last month), couldn't hang on to a third place short program finish, as he fell just off the podium in fourth. Like Rippon, Mroz will be a threat both nationally and internationally in the years to come, especially if his quadruple toe-loop becomes more consistent.

On the ladies side, Asada turned around what has been an otherwise dismal season thus far by taking the gold medal after a third place short program finish. She was stunning in the free skate, landing 2 triple Axels and earning a season's best score. However, her short program was a mess, as her triple Axel combination was downgraded to a double and she completely popped a planned triple flip. Her score of 57.22 for that segment could be disastrous should it happen again at the Olympics. A sub-60 point short program score would likely place Asada out of the final group for the free skate, meaning the judges wouldn't be as generous with her Program Component Scores, making it that much harder to challenge for a medal of any color, let alone gold.

It's been a tough season for Asada, who only placed second and 6th in her two fall Grand Prix events and failed to make the Grand Prix Final, a title she won last season. Though she recorded a new season's best overall score at this event (183.96), it is still below what teammate Miki Ando received at the Grand Prix Final (185.94), and well below Korea's world champion Yu-Na Kim's score at the Grand Prix in Paris in October (210.03).

Akiko Suzuki, another emerging Japanese star, took the silver at Four Continents after winning the short program, while American Caroline Zhang rallied from 4th to win the bronze. Zhang won't be heading to the Olympics (she was only 10th at the U.S. Championships last month), but Suzuki will, and she heads into that event as a legitimate podium threat.

In the pairs event here, Keauna McLaughlin and Rockne Brubaker of the U.S. won the silver medal with improved programs than what they showed last month at Nationals, and Madison Hubbell and Keiffer Hubbell took bronze in the ice dance event, their first-ever ISU senior championship medal.

Friday, January 22, 2010

U.S. Nationals: Senior ladies practice notes (Friday 1/22)

I attended the championship ladies free skate practice today. Below are some jump notes and impressions:

Alexe Gilles looks very strong. She hit numerous triple Lutzes and triple flips, and had a mostly clean run through. She looked relaxed and confident, and I think she will rebound very nicely after last night's rough short program.

Sasha Cohen looked like a completely different skater after her stunning short program last night. During her run through, she opened with a triple Lutz-double toe-double toe combination (wrong edge take off on the Lutz), but then fell hard on the triple loop. She also hit a nice triple flip. Sasha did not do a very complete run through (even leaving out much of the choreography) and this may come back to haunt her. She has always been a strong short program skater, but the real test will come tomorrow in the free skate which she hasn't trained as much as the other girls on the competition.

Alissa Czisny looked confident, hitting all of her jumps during her run through. I didn't see any major errors from her; she looks in prime form.

Christina Gao could be a surprise threat tomorrow. She hit a number of beautiful triple-triple combinations and had a mostly clean run through as well. She is looking confident and much improved under the tutelage of Brian Orser.

Amanda Dobbs had a rough practice. I don't think she'll be able to maintain her current 6th place standing.

Rachael Flatt had a decent run through. She turned out of the landing on her double Axel (it looked very close to the boards) and then doubled a planned triple flip combination. She regrouped to hit her last four jump elements, and also hit many other jumps during the session, including a perfectly clean triple Lutz-triple loop combination. She coudl very well take the title tomorrow.

Mirai Nagasu looked the best I have ever seen her. I did not see one underrotated jump. Her technique is so refined and pure now; she is able to rotate triples with ease and confidence. She also looked very happy which was nice to see. Her run through had one fall, but during the session she also landed multiple double Axel-triple toe combinations and even one (clean) triple Lutz-triple toe.

Melissa Bulanhagui looks quite strong, too. Her triple Lutz is a thing of beauty, and her run-through was excellent. Look for her to move up in the standings tomorrow.

Emily Hughes had a rough practice session, and an even worse run through. She doubled or singled almost every triple attempt. She did land a triple toe, but it looked very suspicious rotation-wise. She won't factor into the medals, or even the top 8 really.

Bebe Liang looked ok. I saw one fall on a triple loop but I missed the rest of her run through. I also missed Ashley Wagner's run through, but I heard that she did fairly well.

Sunday, January 17, 2010

Abbott, Lysacek, Weir named to U.S. Olympic team

The US Figure Skating International Selection Committee has officially named Jeremy Abbott, Evan Lysacek, and Johnny Weir to the 2010 U.S. Olympic team.

The trio finished first, second, and third, respectively, this afternoon in Spokane, though Abbott was clearly the class of the field, winning his second consecutive title by more than 25 points. He nailed a beautiful quad toe loop at the beginning of his program and then proceeded to land 8 perfect triple jumps. His fantastic spins, clean lines, and exciting footwork sequences ignited the crowd, and his victory here marks him as a legitimate gold medal threat next month in Vancouver.

Lysacek wasn't perfect in his free skate, falling on an underrotated quad toe attempt and doubling a planned triple loop jump. However, his passionate footwork and tidy spins were more than enough for second place and a second Olympic trip (he was 4th four years ago in Torino). As the reigning World champ, Lysacek also enters the Games as a gold medal favorite, the first time in years that the United States has had two men who could both realistically win the Olympics in the same year.

Weir, the U.S. champion from 2004-2006, rebounded after a 5th place finish last year to take the bronze and nab the final Olympic berth. If he skates up to his full potential in Vancouver, he could make a run at the podium, too.

If Abbott, Lysacek, and Weir represent the present of U.S. men's figure skating, then Adam Rippon is surely the future. His smooth style and solid technique make him stand out from the crowd, and if he keeps improving the way he has been under coach Brian Orser, I have no doubt that he will be winning World Championship medals in no time.

U.S. Nationals: 'Psychic' skatefan's prediction comes true

Move over Miss Cleo.

Back on August 6, 2009, I wrote an entry titled "Evora and Ladwig on the fast track to Vancouver," an entry that proved to be prophetic this weekend at the 2010 U.S. Figure Skating Championships.

Third after the short program, the duo from Florida (though Mark Ladwig is a Minnesota-native) rallied in yesterday's free skate to take the silver medal behind their training mates Caydee Denney and Jeremy Barrett. They delivered a gorgeous program, despite a fall on their throw triple Lutz attempt, and showcased the best lifts of any team in the competition.

Evora and Ladwig have been written off by most in the past few years as they continually under-performed in competition. With their silver medal and Olympic spot secured, the team has finally silenced their critics and managed to step up beautifully when it was all on the line. While a medal next month in Vancouver is out of reach for them, they will no doubt enjoy their time and experience on Olympic ice.

2006 Olympians Rena Inoue and John Baldwin landed their trademark throw triple Axel but their other elements did not stand out amongst the field. John only managed a side-by-side double toe loop, and they were forced to settle for the bronze medal. They are the first alternates for the Olympic team, but have said they do not want to be considered for the Four Continents Championships or the World Championships.

In heartbreaking fashion, 2008 and 2009 U.S. champs Keauna McLaughlin and Rockne Brubaker delivered another flawed, albeit far better, program after Friday's short program disaster. They pulled up from 7th to 5th, but are only the second alternates for the Olympic team. They have vowed to stick together for another four years, and I'm confident that with their drive and determination, they'll come back blazing next year.

Saturday, January 16, 2010

Denney & Barrett, Abbott on top after day 1 at U.S. Nationals

Caydee Denney and Jeremy Barrett, the defending U.S. silver medalists, skated like they actually wanted to go to Vancouver and won the senior pairs short program with a resounding 63.01 points.

The duo landed perfect side-by-side triple toe loops and a solid split triple twist. Denney used her cat-like abilities to save a throw triple Lutz that was a bit off in the air. Their commanding performance all but ensures them a spot on the Olympic team next month.

Following Denney and Barrett are Caitlin Yankowskas and John Coughlin, only 7th at last year's event but now a solid second with a score of 62.09. Their heartfelt yet technically solid performance throws them into the Olympic picture as well, and another solid program today could very well earn them a trip to the Games.

Aside from the top two teams, the pairs short program was a brutal event. Amanda Evora and Mark Ladwig skated with a cautious confidence and sit third heading into the free skate. Two-time champions and 2006 Olympians Rena Inoue and John Baldwin are fourth due to some fairly generous judging. Inoue sat down on the landing of a throw triple Axel and Baldwin completely lost his footing on the pair's side-by-side spin. If they can hit the triple Axel in today's free skate, they will certainly take aim at an Olympic berth.

Perhaps the most disappointing performance of the evening went to two-time and defending champs Keauna McLaughlin and Rockne Brubaker. They have been looking so solid in practice all week, but Keauna fell on both the side-by-side triple Salchow and the team's death spiral, which received no points from the panel. She also heavily two-footed the landing of the throw, putting her and Rockne in a distant 7th place with 52.55, nearly 10 points off their personal best. An Olympic trip is still within their grasp today, but they will have to skate absolutely lights-out and hope for the teams above them to make a few mistakes along the way. Stranger things have happened.

The men's event was a different story, with the top challengers all skating relatively well. Defending champ Jeremy Abbott was stellar, nailing four solid triples and two intricate step sequences into his "A Day in the Life" program. He leads with 87.85 points. Three-time champion Johnny Weir also skated well, albeit a bit conservatively, and sits third heading into tomorrow's free skate. World champion Evan Lysacek stepped out of his triple Axel, but his powerful spins and footwork sequences were enough to keep him in second, a mere .18 ahead of Weir.

Two-time Junior World gold medalist Adam Rippon was nailing a perfect program up until he doubled his planned triple Lutz and ran right into the boards. Seconds later, with his concentration likely gone, he fell on his straightline footwork sequence. Rippon sits fourth with a solid 72.91 points, although a trip to Vancouver is now, barring anything major happening, out of the question.

Ryan Bradley started off with a beautiful quad toe-triple toe combination, but then went on to double both his planned triple Axel and triple Lutz jumps to land in 6th. Reigning silver medalist Brandon Mroz put out an uninspired, messy program and sits 10th, with all Olympic hopes for 2010 gone.

The surprise of the event was without a doubt Armin Mahbanoozadeh. Only 6th in the junior event last year, Armin laid down the skate of his life, hitting all four of his planned triples including a triple Axel, to amass 72.56 points and take 5th place. Another solid program in the free skate could ensure this young talent of either a trip to the Four Continents Championship or the Junior World Championship later this season.

The pairs free skate begins at 11am local time today in Spokane, and the men take to the ice tomorrow at 10:30am.

Friday, January 8, 2010

World silver medalist Chan splits from coach

Canada's 2009 World silver medalist Patrick Chan's Olympic medal hopes may now be in jeopardy.

Chan and former coach Don Laws announced today that they have gone their separate ways, and their split seems anything but amicable.

"I will say that he did not run from me," Laws said. "I ran from him."

Ouch.

This is another bump in the road in what has been a shaky season so far for Chan. After placing 2nd at the World Championships last March, he sustained a leg injury over the summer and was forced to withdraw from his first Grand Prix event. He was well enough to compete at Skate Canada two months ago, but fell three times in his free skate and wound up a distant 6th overall.

Chan has been training in Colorado Springs since the conclusion of Skate Canada in November. He is now being coached by Christy Krall and his longtime choreographer Lori Nichol.

There is clearly more to this story. It's obvious that Chan, who has proven to be headstrong and very opinionated in the past (i.e., his comments regarding Brian Joubert at last year's Worlds), was not agreeing with Laws' decisions regarding either training or preparation for the Olympics, now just one month away.

It can be risky to change coaches at the start of an Olympic season, but doing so this close to the Games is downright scary. Chan will already have the expectations of the home nation on his shoulders next month, and this latest move could prove to be too much to deal with.

Monday, January 4, 2010

Don't count Nagasu out just yet

2008 U.S. champion Mirai Nagasu may have not been as successful as her American rivals so far this season, but she is far from out of contention to make the Olympic team.

Nagasu's rise to the top of the elite skating scene has been meteoric. She surprised many when she won the 2007 U.S. junior title, upsetting Caroline Zhang. A year later, Nagasu became the first American woman since Peggy Fleming to win the senior title on her first try. At age 14, she was the second youngest American ladies champ since Tara Lipinski in 1997, setting herself up for a trip to Vancouver this year.

A disappointing, injury filled season last year was not part of the plan. She fell to 5th at Nationals and missed making the World Championship team. This summer, Nagasu split with coach Charlene Wong and is now under the tutelage of the legendary Frank Carroll in Los Angeles. While she didn't medal in either of her Grand Prix events this season, I believe Mirai is still very much in the running to make the U.S. Olympic team.

Argument 1: Nagasu, known as a chronic "under-rotater," has improved tenfold this season under Carroll. At the Cup of China event in November, she lead after the short program but then faltered in the free skate, getting downgraded on four triple jumps, and dropping to 5th place overall. However, just three weeks later at Skate Canada, she was given full credit for all five triples she attempted. She scored a respectable 100.49 points for that long program, infinitely better than the dismal 74.08 she scored a year earlier at the NHK Trophy.

Carroll has done wonders for Nagasu's skating in such a short time. Her technique improved so much in the weeks between her two fall events, which gives great hope to an even more improved Mirai showing up in Spokane later this month.

Argument 2: While she was overshadowed by teammates Ashley Wagner, Rachael Flatt, and Alissa Czisny this season on the Grand Prix circuit, it may have been a blessing in disguise. Mirai didn't qualify for the Grand Prix Final which is probably a bit disappointing for her, but it also means that she didn't lose any training time travelling to and from Tokyo in December. What she really needed was to stay at home drilling her jumps over and over, and I have no doubt she did just that. Nagasu has said she has an incredible amount of respect for Carroll, and after her free skate in China earlier this season, she exclaimed that she "just wanted to go home and train harder." She was a self-proclaimed "rebellious teenager" last season, but so far this season she appears to be all business.

Argument 3: Winning the '08 National title was no doubt the highlight of her young career, but it also placed an incredible amount of pressure on her. This showed last year at Nationals, where she delivered a flawed short program and was in tears as she took to the ice for her free skate. This year, Nagasu has nothing to lose and nothing to prove: she enters this year's event as a challenger and will not have the weight of the U.S. title resting on her slight, 16-year old shoulders.

Mirai may seem like a longshot to make the Olympic team, but the U.S. ladies field is so unpredictable that it is impossible to tell. With continued, steady improvement, she may in fact be in the best position of all the American ladies to sneak under the radar and nab one of the two available spots on the team.

Friday, January 1, 2010

The ten greatest U.S. Nationals performances of the last decade

The 2010 U.S. Figure Skating Championships begin in two weeks, and this year's event proves to be a memorable one with Olympic team spots on the line. I have no doubt that we will see some fantastic performances across all four disciplines, but I first wanted to reminisce on how great the 2000-2009 years were.

From Michelle Kwan's consistent dominance to Evan Lysacek's emerging star power, to triple Axels by Rena Inoue & John Baldwin and Kimmie Meissner, there were an incredible amount of memorable programs by America's stars during the past ten years. Here are my top 10 favorites:

10. Matt Savoie, 2006 Long Program, "The Mission"
Known for his smooth edges, interesting transitions, and innovative programs, Matt Savoie had the potential to be a multiple national champion. He struggled with consistency and missed out on an Olympic berth in 2002. After hanging around for four more years, he pulled it together when it counted the most.



Savoie's program remains my favorite of that year's competition. I love the difficult entrances into his jumps, something Lysacek and Johnny Weir didn't (and still don't) really do. Savoie would earn the bronze medal here, and would go on to place a very respectable 7th at the Olympics.

9. Rena Inoue & John Baldwin, 2006 Long Program, "Shostakovich Medley"
Like Savoie, Inoue and Baldwin were never known for their consistency. John in particular has chronic trouble with his side-by-side triple jumps. An 11th place at the World championships in 2005 seemed to light a fire in this duo to improve all aspects of their skating, including the difficulty of their throws.



They entered the free skate at this competition in third place, on the verge of not earning one of the two possible Olympic team spots. They could have succumbed to pressure, but instead shone, nailing their side-by-side jumps as well as a throw triple Axel -- the first in U.S. Nationals history. They remain the only team in the world performing that element, and if they nail it again this month in Spokane, they could very well find themselves on the Olympic team once again.

8. Yebin Mok, 2003 Short Program, "The Swan"
Yebin who? Making only her third senior National appearance, Mok came into the event as a virtual unknown after placing 10th the previous two years. In 2003, she was the last skater to take the ice in the short program, and made the most of that opportunity by laying down this fantastic skate.



Mok's quiet confidence and grace helped her to a fifth place finish in the short program, and a sixth place finish overall. While injuries hampered her skating career (her last Nationals appearance was a 16th place finish in 2005), we will always have this gem to remember her by.

7. Tanith Belbin & Ben Agosto, 2008 Free Dance, "Chopin Medley"
Often criticized for their lack of finesse and trend of "cheesy" programs (their "That's Entertainment" free dance, anyone?), Belbin and Agosto silenced their critics in 2008 with this wonderfully mature and poised performance to music by Frederic Chopin. Always great technicians, they were clearly the class of the field this year as well.



This performance helped them win their 5th straight U.S. title, and would set them up for a World title a few months later. Unfortunately, a fall in the compulsory dance by Belbin at the 2008 Worlds dashed any hope of a medal that year. Still, this program was the highlight of their season and, in my opinion, the best free dance by any team at Nationals last decade.

6. Jeremy Abbott, 2009 Short Program, "Adagio" by Albinoni
Coming off a victory at the Grand Prix Final just a month earlier, Abbott entered last year's competition as the gold medal favorite. Like Savoie, his unique jump entries and exits distinguished him from the rest of the field and gave him a significant advantage.



Abbott has been known in the skating world as a "headcase" -- unable to lay down perfect programs when the pressure is on. His mental toughness has improved tenfold in the past few years. His free skate at this event last year wasn't as perfect as this program, but it was enough for him to take the title.

5. Kimmie Meissner, 2005 Long Program, "Daphne et Chloe"
After winning back-to-back novice and junior U.S. titles in 2003 and 2004, Meissner's senior debut in 2005 pitted her against established veterans like Michelle Kwan, Sasha Cohen, Jenny Kirk, Bebe Liang, and Ann Patrice McDonough. Apparently, someone didn't mention this to Meissner.



She hit 7 soaring triple jumps -- including a triple Axel, the first and only American woman to land one since Tonya Harding in the early '90s. Though she won the bronze medal here, at 15-years old she was too young to compete at the World championships. Instead, she skated at the Junior World Championships, setting herself up for a top-six Olympic finish and senior World title the following year.

4. Mirai Nagasu, 2008 Short Program, "I've Got Rhythm"
The 2008 ladies event was supposed to be a showdown between Meissner and Caroline Zhang. Instead, 2007 U.S. junior champ Nagasu stole the show -- and the National title -- with this winning short program.



She scored over 70 points, a U.S. women's record, but what's more impressive is her speed across the ice and poise, both of which are pretty amazing for a 14-year old. I love her triple Lutz-triple toe loop combination, and the ina bauer entrance and spiral exit from her double Axel is very cool. Nagasu is a personal favorite of mine to make the Olympic team this year, and programs like this three weeks from now in Spokane could certainly help get her there.

3. Evan Lysacek, 2007 Long Program, "Carmen"
After winning bronze in 2005 and silver in 2006, there was only one place for Lysacek to go in 2007. His solid jumps and passionate performance to Bizet's famous "Carmen" enthralled the Spokane crowd and earned the then 21-year old his first of two National titles.



His final footwork sequence is one of my all-time favorites, and there's no denying the electricity that surged through the audience. A standing ovation here is just one of many for the 2009 World champ who is the favorite to regain his National title two weeks from now in Spokane.

2. Michelle Kwan, 2004 Long Program, "Tosca"
There's really not much to say about this program except that it is vintage Kwan at her finest. Michelle thrives on the pressure of competition and always skates her best when she is counted out the most. Coming into this skate, Kwan was second after the short program behind rival Cohen. Dick and Peggy were proclaiming Cohen as the new champion even before Kwan skated -- a bad, bad mistake.



Kwan did what she does best: she got angry, perhaps even a little annoyed, and answered the call, nailing six beautiful triple jumps and a final footwork sequence that is nothing short of magnificent. She may not have an Olympic title, but Kwan will be remembered as the best-ever from the United States, and one of the world's all-time greatest.

1. Michelle Kwan, 2001 Short Program, "East of Eden"
Kwan is the only skater to be on this list twice, but she could have her own top 10 list of greatest Nationals performances from 2000-2009. Her 1998 short program to music by Rachmaninoff is arguably the best women's short program of all time, but this "East of Eden" program comes close!



Her opening triple Lutz-double toe loop combination had amazing suspension in the air, as did her triple flip. Her spiral sequence is goose bump-inducing. She deserved every 6.0 she received for this performance -- probably even more. There's not a whole lot left to say -- watch it for yourself!