2011 U.S. Nationals Fun with Numbers: Pairs

For the sole purpose of enjoyment, speculation and "what ifs," I've compiled a list of the average scores of all the senior-level skaters who will be at Nationals next month. Listed below are the pairs overall, short program and free skate scores averaged from all competitions this fall (JGP events, GP events, JGP/GP Finals, Senior B's, Regionals, Sectionals).

For pairs, I've also included the results of the Indy Challenge held in August, simply because some teams have only competed once otherwise this fall.

Please comment with your thoughts, opinions, Nationals predictions, etc!

Ice dance, men's and ladies to follow shortly...

Senior Pairs

Average Overall Scores:
1. Yankowskas/Coughlin (160.73)
2. Denney/Barrett (159.40)
3. Evora/Ladwig (157.26)
4. Castelli/Shnapir (152.47)

5. Simpson/Miller (143.06)
6. Vise/Baldwin (141.37) [one event only, Ice Challenge]
7. Donlan/Speroff (137.67)
8. Smith/Bartholomay (137.14)

9. Katz/Lynch (136.72)
10. Bereswill/Young (136.40) [one event only, Sectionals]
11. Davis/Leftheris (134.40)
12. Aaron/Cohen (134.13)

13. Zhang/Toth (124.51)
14. Moore/Gaumond (118.13)
15. Scimeca/Dimitrov (88.93) [one event only, Sectionals]
16. Marley/Brubaker (52.30 SP only) [one event only, Sectionals SP]


Average SP Scores:
1. Denney/Barrett (56.76)
2. Yankowskas/Coughlin (56.63)
3. Marley/Brubaker (52.30)
4. Evora/Ladwig (52.02)
5. Castelli/Shnapir (50.90)
6. Smith/Bartholomay (50.45)
7. Bereswill/Young (49.24)
8. Simpson/Miller (49.06)
9. Vise/Baldwin (48.70)
10. Donlan/Speroff (46.69)
11. Aaron/Cohen (46.30)
12. Katz/Lynch (45.68)
13. Davis/Leftheris (44.87)
14. Moore/Gaumond (43.95)
15. Zhang/Toth (43.80)
16. Scimeca/Dimitrov (40.91)


Average FS Scores:
1. Evora/Ladwig (105.24)
2. Yankowskas/Coughlin (104.10)
3. Denney/Barrett (102.64)
4. Castelli/Shnapir (101.57)
5. Simpson/Miller (94.00)
6. Vise/Baldwin (92.67)
7. Katz/Lynch (91.04)
8. Donlan/Speroff (90.98)
9. Davis/Leftheris (89.53)
10. Aaron/Cohen (87.83)
11. Bereswill/Young (87.16)
12. Smith/Bartholomay (86.69)
13. Zhang/Toth (80.71)
14. Moore/Gaumond (74.18)
15. Scimeca/Dimitrov (48.02)
16. Marley/Brubaker (0.00)

U.S. Nationals: 'Psychic' skatefan's prediction comes true

Move over Miss Cleo.

Back on August 6, 2009, I wrote an entry titled "Evora and Ladwig on the fast track to Vancouver," an entry that proved to be prophetic this weekend at the 2010 U.S. Figure Skating Championships.

Third after the short program, the duo from Florida (though Mark Ladwig is a Minnesota-native) rallied in yesterday's free skate to take the silver medal behind their training mates Caydee Denney and Jeremy Barrett. They delivered a gorgeous program, despite a fall on their throw triple Lutz attempt, and showcased the best lifts of any team in the competition.

Evora and Ladwig have been written off by most in the past few years as they continually under-performed in competition. With their silver medal and Olympic spot secured, the team has finally silenced their critics and managed to step up beautifully when it was all on the line. While a medal next month in Vancouver is out of reach for them, they will no doubt enjoy their time and experience on Olympic ice.

2006 Olympians Rena Inoue and John Baldwin landed their trademark throw triple Axel but their other elements did not stand out amongst the field. John only managed a side-by-side double toe loop, and they were forced to settle for the bronze medal. They are the first alternates for the Olympic team, but have said they do not want to be considered for the Four Continents Championships or the World Championships.

In heartbreaking fashion, 2008 and 2009 U.S. champs Keauna McLaughlin and Rockne Brubaker delivered another flawed, albeit far better, program after Friday's short program disaster. They pulled up from 7th to 5th, but are only the second alternates for the Olympic team. They have vowed to stick together for another four years, and I'm confident that with their drive and determination, they'll come back blazing next year.

Denney & Barrett, Abbott on top after day 1 at U.S. Nationals

Caydee Denney and Jeremy Barrett, the defending U.S. silver medalists, skated like they actually wanted to go to Vancouver and won the senior pairs short program with a resounding 63.01 points.

The duo landed perfect side-by-side triple toe loops and a solid split triple twist. Denney used her cat-like abilities to save a throw triple Lutz that was a bit off in the air. Their commanding performance all but ensures them a spot on the Olympic team next month.

Following Denney and Barrett are Caitlin Yankowskas and John Coughlin, only 7th at last year's event but now a solid second with a score of 62.09. Their heartfelt yet technically solid performance throws them into the Olympic picture as well, and another solid program today could very well earn them a trip to the Games.

Aside from the top two teams, the pairs short program was a brutal event. Amanda Evora and Mark Ladwig skated with a cautious confidence and sit third heading into the free skate. Two-time champions and 2006 Olympians Rena Inoue and John Baldwin are fourth due to some fairly generous judging. Inoue sat down on the landing of a throw triple Axel and Baldwin completely lost his footing on the pair's side-by-side spin. If they can hit the triple Axel in today's free skate, they will certainly take aim at an Olympic berth.

Perhaps the most disappointing performance of the evening went to two-time and defending champs Keauna McLaughlin and Rockne Brubaker. They have been looking so solid in practice all week, but Keauna fell on both the side-by-side triple Salchow and the team's death spiral, which received no points from the panel. She also heavily two-footed the landing of the throw, putting her and Rockne in a distant 7th place with 52.55, nearly 10 points off their personal best. An Olympic trip is still within their grasp today, but they will have to skate absolutely lights-out and hope for the teams above them to make a few mistakes along the way. Stranger things have happened.

The men's event was a different story, with the top challengers all skating relatively well. Defending champ Jeremy Abbott was stellar, nailing four solid triples and two intricate step sequences into his "A Day in the Life" program. He leads with 87.85 points. Three-time champion Johnny Weir also skated well, albeit a bit conservatively, and sits third heading into tomorrow's free skate. World champion Evan Lysacek stepped out of his triple Axel, but his powerful spins and footwork sequences were enough to keep him in second, a mere .18 ahead of Weir.

Two-time Junior World gold medalist Adam Rippon was nailing a perfect program up until he doubled his planned triple Lutz and ran right into the boards. Seconds later, with his concentration likely gone, he fell on his straightline footwork sequence. Rippon sits fourth with a solid 72.91 points, although a trip to Vancouver is now, barring anything major happening, out of the question.

Ryan Bradley started off with a beautiful quad toe-triple toe combination, but then went on to double both his planned triple Axel and triple Lutz jumps to land in 6th. Reigning silver medalist Brandon Mroz put out an uninspired, messy program and sits 10th, with all Olympic hopes for 2010 gone.

The surprise of the event was without a doubt Armin Mahbanoozadeh. Only 6th in the junior event last year, Armin laid down the skate of his life, hitting all four of his planned triples including a triple Axel, to amass 72.56 points and take 5th place. Another solid program in the free skate could ensure this young talent of either a trip to the Four Continents Championship or the Junior World Championship later this season.

The pairs free skate begins at 11am local time today in Spokane, and the men take to the ice tomorrow at 10:30am.