Lysacek perseveres for Olympic gold

Reigning World champion Evan Lysacek of the United States laid down a flawless free skate Thursday night to win Olympic gold and defeat defending champ Evgeni Plushenko of Russia by 1.86 points.

Lysacek hit 8 solid triple jumps, but it was his high-scoring spins and footwork that gave him the slight edge over Plushenko. The 27-year old Russian landed a quad toe-triple toe combination but struggled to save the landing of his triple Axel and triple Lutz jumps. His spins and footwork were slower and less impressive than Lysacek's, and his failure to do a three-jump combination might have cost him his second Olympic title.

With his victory, Lysacek, 24, becomes the 13th American to win figure skating gold, and the first since Sarah Hughes won in Salt Lake City in 2002. He is also the first reigning World champion since Scott Hamilton in 1984 to win at the Games, and the first U.S. man to win since Brian Boitano 22-years ago in Calgary.

Japan's comeback kid Daisuke Takahashi won the bronze with a wonderful free skate after missing all of last season due to knee surgery. American Johnny Weir nailed all of his jumps but wasn't able to pull up from 6th place overall. U.S. champion Jeremy Abbott rebounded nicely from a poor short program, nailing 6 solid triple jumps and climbing from 15th place to 9th overall.

Vancouver 2010: Olympic medal picks

With only 5 days until the start of the 2010 Winter Olympic Games, it's a good time for me to make my Olympic figure skating gold, silver, and bronze medal predictions. Enjoy!

Pairs
Gold: Xue Shen & Hongbo Zhao (China)
Silver: Aliona Savchenko & Robin Szolkowy (Germany)
Bronze: Qing Pang & Jian Tong (China)
4th: Maria Mukhortova & Maxim Trankov (Russia)

Shen & Zhao are without a doubt both the sentimental and logical favorites heading into the Games. The duo has won the past two Olympic bronze medals, as well as three World titles (2002, 2003, 2007). Their return to competition this year has been nothing short of magnificent, as they have won the Cup of China, Skate America, and the Grand Prix Final, recording the highest total score of any pair in the world this season (214.25). Shen & Zhao look primed to take Olympic gold and secure their place in history as one of the greatest teams of all time.

Germany's Savchenko & Szolkowy have won the past two World titles, and their silver medal finish at the European Championships a few weeks ago garnered the third-best overall pairs score on the season (211.72). Their innovative programs and lifts allow them to gain high Program Component Scores and positive Grades of Execution from the judges. While the Chinese will probably prevail based on their technical difficulty and consistency, Savchenko & Szolkowy definitely have the goods to challenge them, but silver seems more likely this time around.

The second Chinese team, Pang & Tong, will battle for the bronze medal with a number of challengers, including European champs Yuko Kavaguti & Alexander Smirnov of Russia and European bronze medalists Mukhortova & Trankov (also of Russia).

Pang & Tong's Chinese teammates, 2006 Olympic silver medalists Dan Zhang & Hao Zhang, could also contend for the bronze, though it is unlikely they will end up on the podium. Pang & Tong, the '06 World champs, were second to Shen & Zhao at the Grand Prix Final, and they have more impressive consistency and technical elements than their Russian challengers. Russian or Soviet pairs have won the last 12 Olympic gold medals in pairs skating (for those mathematically challenged, this dates back to 1964). Though impressive, the streak is unlikely to continue this year.

The American champions, Caydee Denney and Jeremy Barrett, will look to build upon their 9th place finish at Worlds last season. They are perhaps the most consistent team in the competition, though their Program Component Scores will not be competitive with the top 6. Look for them to finish around 7th/8th, with the other U.S. team, Amanda Evora and Mark Ladwig, finishing 10th-14th.

Men
Gold: Evgeny Plushenko (Russia)
Silver: Evan Lysacek (United States)
Bronze: Jeremy Abbott (United States)
4th: Patrick Chan (Canada)

2006 Olympic champion Plushenko is back to competition this season after nearly four years off. While I am not a Plushenko fan, he is the gold-medal favorite due to his consistency and mastery of the quadruple jump. Though his jumping is impressive, the rest of his skating is not, as his programs lack transitions and any real choreography. Furthermore, his spins also leave much to be desired.

Lysacek, the reigning World champion, should rebound nicely after a lackluster free skate at the U.S. Championships a few weeks ago. He usually peaks after Nationals, which is good news for his Olympic medal bid. His quadruple jump will likely not make an appearance in Vancouver, but his season's best score of 249.45 points (less than 6 points behind Plushenko) makes him a very serious medal threat. If Plushenko's quad goes M.I.A. during the Games, Lysacek could find himself on the top of the podium.

Two-time and reigning United States champ Abbott has been building nicely so far this season. He took gold at Skate Canada, was 4th at the Grand Prix Final (but 2nd in the free skate there), and demolished the competition at Nationals, beating silver medalist Lysacek by more than 25 points. When he's on, Abbott can be tough to beat, and he is armed with a quadruple toe loop. However, nerves can often get the best of him, and he could realistically finish anywhere from 1st-10th in Vancouver.

Other medal challengers include Canada's Patrick Chan, the '09 World silver medalist who has been dealing with injury this season. He could only muster up a 6th place finish at Skate Canada in November, but looked to be in better form at the Canadian Championships last month. The hometown crowd will either make him or break him. American Johnny Weir is a longshot to medal but could sneak in for bronze if others falter. France's Brian Joubert and Japanese stars Daisuke Takahashi and Nobunari Oda are also very legitimate medal threats in what is an unbelievably strong men's field -- the deepest men's field in Olympic history.

Ice Dance
Gold: Tessa Virtue & Scott Moir (Canada)
Silver: Meryl Davis & Charlie White (United States)
Bronze: Tanith Belbin & Ben Agosto (United States)
4th: Oksana Domnina & Maxim Shabalin (Russia)
5th: Isabelle Delobel & Olivier Schoenfelder (France)

The ice dancing event in Vancouver could prove to be the most unpredictable of all the skating events, with five teams that could realistically win gold. The home team of Virtue & Moir have medaled at Worlds the past two seasons, and are armed with a gorgeous free dance this year. While they likely won't lead after the compulsory dance or the original dance, I can see them clinching gold in the final segment on home ice.

Davis & White, fresh off a successful defense of their title at the U.S. Championships, look ready to medal as well. They train with the Canadians in Michigan, though the two teams are quite different stylistically. Davis & White's amazing "Bollywood" original dance is the best of the season, and it could help them make up ground after the compulsory dance (where they most likely won't be higher than 5th). I can see them moving up to 2nd overall with their great free dance. They, along with Virtue & Moir, have been in another league points-wise so far this season. If the judging is fair, those two teams should really be top-2, in either order.

2006 silver medalists Belbin & Agosto probably won't upgrade to gold this time around. In fact, they will be lucky to stay on the podium altogether. While their programs are far better and more polished than the Russian team of Domnina & Shabalin, the judges could very well give the nod to the Russians because they are the current World champions.

A Russian or Soviet team has won 7 of the 9 Olympic gold medals in ice dance since it became an Olympic sport in 1976 (they have also medaled in every Olympics since then, though that streak is in jeopardy this year). In fact, the Europeans could potentially be shut out of the ice dance medals, with the French team of Delobel & Schoenfelder playing catch-up after being out of competition since December 2008. Delobel had a baby last September after recovering from shoulder surgery a few months prior, and while they are great in the compulsory dance (the first phase of competition), their original and free dances have yet to be performed internationally this season. Debuting two new programs at the Olympics is a daunting task for anyone, even the '08 World champs.

The third American team of Emily Samuelson and Evan Bates are poised for a top-10 finish, but could go even higher than that. They are the future of U.S. ice dancing and will likely be medal threats four years from now.

Ladies
Gold: Yu-Na Kim (South Korea)
Silver: Mao Asada (Japan)
Bronze: Miki Ando (Japan)
4th: Rachael Flatt (United States)
5th: Joannie Rochette (Canada)
6th: Akiko Suzuki (Japan) or Mirai Nagasu (United States)

Kim is the most dominant ladies skater of the past quadrennium, and the reigning World champ has her sights set on gold in Vancouver. While she has faltered somewhat this season, Kim holds the top three overall ladies scores on the season, including her world-record score of 210.03 points. It would probably take one mistake in the short program and at least two/three mistakes in the long program for her to be beaten.

The Japanese are pinning their hopes on Asada, the 2008 World champion who has struggled immensely so far this season. She has been prone to numerous jump downgrades, including downgrades on her signature triple Axel, a jump she will need to hit perfectly if she has any hopes of defeating Kim. The key for Asada is to deliver a clean short program to keep herself in medal contention. She has not been clean in the short program all season, and mistakes like the ones she made at the Rostelecom Cup or the Four Continents Championships last month could leave her out of the final group heading into the free skate.

The battle for bronze is wide open. 2007 World champion Ando has the is definitely in the mix, and she could even challenge her teammate Asada for silver. American champion Flatt has a shot too, especially if she can capitalize on her consistency if (when?) others falter. Rochette, one of Canada's best female skaters of all time, was runner-up to Kim last year at Worlds, but has had a shaky season thus far. If she can handle the pressure of skating for a medal at home, she will make a run for the podium as well. Grand Prix Final bronze medalist Suzuki of Japan has proven herself to be a great free skater, though like Asada, she will need to be absolutely clean in the short program if she hopes to medal.

And then there's 2010 U.S. silver medalist Nagasu, fresh off two stunning programs at Nationals. Her improvements under new coach Frank Carroll have been astounding, and her short program scores this season have been huge (62.20 at the Cup of China and 70+ at Nationals). Nagasu could very well find herself skating in the last group for the free skate, and if she can minimize her under-rotation problems, a bronze is well within her grasp.

The best shot at a European medal will come from Italy's Carolina Kostner, 2nd in the World in 2008, and Finland's Laura Lepisto, who has great presence on the ice but lacks consistency and the more difficult triples. Both skaters should slate in around 7th-10th after the ice settles in Vancouver.

Rippon, Asada golden at Four Continents

America's Adam Rippon jumped from 7th after the short program to take the gold medal last weekend at the Four Continents Figure Skating Championships in Jeonju City, Korea, while Japanese star Mao Asada also rallied from a subpar short program to win the ladies title in the final Olympic tune-up.

Rippon, who failed to qualify for the Olympic team last month at the U.S. Championships (he placed 5th there and is the second alternate for the Games), showed that he will be a skater to beat in the next four years leading up to the 2014 Games. He sailed through 8 triple jumps, including 2 triple Axels, and laid down the performance of the night to upset Canadian Kevin Reynolds, the leader after the short program.

Rippon's teammate Ryan Bradley was 8th after a disappointing short program, but recorded the third-best free skate en route to a 5th place finish overall. It has been a difficult few weeks for the crowd-favorite Bradley after he too failed to land a spot on the U.S. Olympic team, finishing 4th in Spokane. He is the first alternate for the Vancouver Games, though it is unlikely he will get the call to compete. Bradley has been on the senior international scene since 2000, and this Four Continents Championship could very well have been his final competitive appearance.

The third American entry, Brandon Mroz (6th at the Nationals last month), couldn't hang on to a third place short program finish, as he fell just off the podium in fourth. Like Rippon, Mroz will be a threat both nationally and internationally in the years to come, especially if his quadruple toe-loop becomes more consistent.

On the ladies side, Asada turned around what has been an otherwise dismal season thus far by taking the gold medal after a third place short program finish. She was stunning in the free skate, landing 2 triple Axels and earning a season's best score. However, her short program was a mess, as her triple Axel combination was downgraded to a double and she completely popped a planned triple flip. Her score of 57.22 for that segment could be disastrous should it happen again at the Olympics. A sub-60 point short program score would likely place Asada out of the final group for the free skate, meaning the judges wouldn't be as generous with her Program Component Scores, making it that much harder to challenge for a medal of any color, let alone gold.

It's been a tough season for Asada, who only placed second and 6th in her two fall Grand Prix events and failed to make the Grand Prix Final, a title she won last season. Though she recorded a new season's best overall score at this event (183.96), it is still below what teammate Miki Ando received at the Grand Prix Final (185.94), and well below Korea's world champion Yu-Na Kim's score at the Grand Prix in Paris in October (210.03).

Akiko Suzuki, another emerging Japanese star, took the silver at Four Continents after winning the short program, while American Caroline Zhang rallied from 4th to win the bronze. Zhang won't be heading to the Olympics (she was only 10th at the U.S. Championships last month), but Suzuki will, and she heads into that event as a legitimate podium threat.

In the pairs event here, Keauna McLaughlin and Rockne Brubaker of the U.S. won the silver medal with improved programs than what they showed last month at Nationals, and Madison Hubbell and Keiffer Hubbell took bronze in the ice dance event, their first-ever ISU senior championship medal.

Abbott, Lysacek, Weir named to U.S. Olympic team

The US Figure Skating International Selection Committee has officially named Jeremy Abbott, Evan Lysacek, and Johnny Weir to the 2010 U.S. Olympic team.

The trio finished first, second, and third, respectively, this afternoon in Spokane, though Abbott was clearly the class of the field, winning his second consecutive title by more than 25 points. He nailed a beautiful quad toe loop at the beginning of his program and then proceeded to land 8 perfect triple jumps. His fantastic spins, clean lines, and exciting footwork sequences ignited the crowd, and his victory here marks him as a legitimate gold medal threat next month in Vancouver.

Lysacek wasn't perfect in his free skate, falling on an underrotated quad toe attempt and doubling a planned triple loop jump. However, his passionate footwork and tidy spins were more than enough for second place and a second Olympic trip (he was 4th four years ago in Torino). As the reigning World champ, Lysacek also enters the Games as a gold medal favorite, the first time in years that the United States has had two men who could both realistically win the Olympics in the same year.

Weir, the U.S. champion from 2004-2006, rebounded after a 5th place finish last year to take the bronze and nab the final Olympic berth. If he skates up to his full potential in Vancouver, he could make a run at the podium, too.

If Abbott, Lysacek, and Weir represent the present of U.S. men's figure skating, then Adam Rippon is surely the future. His smooth style and solid technique make him stand out from the crowd, and if he keeps improving the way he has been under coach Brian Orser, I have no doubt that he will be winning World Championship medals in no time.

U.S. Nationals: 'Psychic' skatefan's prediction comes true

Move over Miss Cleo.

Back on August 6, 2009, I wrote an entry titled "Evora and Ladwig on the fast track to Vancouver," an entry that proved to be prophetic this weekend at the 2010 U.S. Figure Skating Championships.

Third after the short program, the duo from Florida (though Mark Ladwig is a Minnesota-native) rallied in yesterday's free skate to take the silver medal behind their training mates Caydee Denney and Jeremy Barrett. They delivered a gorgeous program, despite a fall on their throw triple Lutz attempt, and showcased the best lifts of any team in the competition.

Evora and Ladwig have been written off by most in the past few years as they continually under-performed in competition. With their silver medal and Olympic spot secured, the team has finally silenced their critics and managed to step up beautifully when it was all on the line. While a medal next month in Vancouver is out of reach for them, they will no doubt enjoy their time and experience on Olympic ice.

2006 Olympians Rena Inoue and John Baldwin landed their trademark throw triple Axel but their other elements did not stand out amongst the field. John only managed a side-by-side double toe loop, and they were forced to settle for the bronze medal. They are the first alternates for the Olympic team, but have said they do not want to be considered for the Four Continents Championships or the World Championships.

In heartbreaking fashion, 2008 and 2009 U.S. champs Keauna McLaughlin and Rockne Brubaker delivered another flawed, albeit far better, program after Friday's short program disaster. They pulled up from 7th to 5th, but are only the second alternates for the Olympic team. They have vowed to stick together for another four years, and I'm confident that with their drive and determination, they'll come back blazing next year.

World silver medalist Chan splits from coach

Canada's 2009 World silver medalist Patrick Chan's Olympic medal hopes may now be in jeopardy.

Chan and former coach Don Laws announced today that they have gone their separate ways, and their split seems anything but amicable.

"I will say that he did not run from me," Laws said. "I ran from him."

Ouch.

This is another bump in the road in what has been a shaky season so far for Chan. After placing 2nd at the World Championships last March, he sustained a leg injury over the summer and was forced to withdraw from his first Grand Prix event. He was well enough to compete at Skate Canada two months ago, but fell three times in his free skate and wound up a distant 6th overall.

Chan has been training in Colorado Springs since the conclusion of Skate Canada in November. He is now being coached by Christy Krall and his longtime choreographer Lori Nichol.

There is clearly more to this story. It's obvious that Chan, who has proven to be headstrong and very opinionated in the past (i.e., his comments regarding Brian Joubert at last year's Worlds), was not agreeing with Laws' decisions regarding either training or preparation for the Olympics, now just one month away.

It can be risky to change coaches at the start of an Olympic season, but doing so this close to the Games is downright scary. Chan will already have the expectations of the home nation on his shoulders next month, and this latest move could prove to be too much to deal with.

Don't count Nagasu out just yet

2008 U.S. champion Mirai Nagasu may have not been as successful as her American rivals so far this season, but she is far from out of contention to make the Olympic team.

Nagasu's rise to the top of the elite skating scene has been meteoric. She surprised many when she won the 2007 U.S. junior title, upsetting Caroline Zhang. A year later, Nagasu became the first American woman since Peggy Fleming to win the senior title on her first try. At age 14, she was the second youngest American ladies champ since Tara Lipinski in 1997, setting herself up for a trip to Vancouver this year.

A disappointing, injury filled season last year was not part of the plan. She fell to 5th at Nationals and missed making the World Championship team. This summer, Nagasu split with coach Charlene Wong and is now under the tutelage of the legendary Frank Carroll in Los Angeles. While she didn't medal in either of her Grand Prix events this season, I believe Mirai is still very much in the running to make the U.S. Olympic team.

Argument 1: Nagasu, known as a chronic "under-rotater," has improved tenfold this season under Carroll. At the Cup of China event in November, she lead after the short program but then faltered in the free skate, getting downgraded on four triple jumps, and dropping to 5th place overall. However, just three weeks later at Skate Canada, she was given full credit for all five triples she attempted. She scored a respectable 100.49 points for that long program, infinitely better than the dismal 74.08 she scored a year earlier at the NHK Trophy.

Carroll has done wonders for Nagasu's skating in such a short time. Her technique improved so much in the weeks between her two fall events, which gives great hope to an even more improved Mirai showing up in Spokane later this month.

Argument 2: While she was overshadowed by teammates Ashley Wagner, Rachael Flatt, and Alissa Czisny this season on the Grand Prix circuit, it may have been a blessing in disguise. Mirai didn't qualify for the Grand Prix Final which is probably a bit disappointing for her, but it also means that she didn't lose any training time travelling to and from Tokyo in December. What she really needed was to stay at home drilling her jumps over and over, and I have no doubt she did just that. Nagasu has said she has an incredible amount of respect for Carroll, and after her free skate in China earlier this season, she exclaimed that she "just wanted to go home and train harder." She was a self-proclaimed "rebellious teenager" last season, but so far this season she appears to be all business.

Argument 3: Winning the '08 National title was no doubt the highlight of her young career, but it also placed an incredible amount of pressure on her. This showed last year at Nationals, where she delivered a flawed short program and was in tears as she took to the ice for her free skate. This year, Nagasu has nothing to lose and nothing to prove: she enters this year's event as a challenger and will not have the weight of the U.S. title resting on her slight, 16-year old shoulders.

Mirai may seem like a longshot to make the Olympic team, but the U.S. ladies field is so unpredictable that it is impossible to tell. With continued, steady improvement, she may in fact be in the best position of all the American ladies to sneak under the radar and nab one of the two available spots on the team.

Asada, Ando, Suzuki headline Japanese Olympic team

Mao Asada routed the ladies field at the Japanese Championships yesterday to clinch a spot on the Olympic team. Akiko Suzuki, also an Olympic newbie, and Miki Ando, who is making her second consecutive trip to the Games, join her.

Daisuke Takahashi continued his comeback season by winning the men's event, while Nobunari Oda and Takahiko Kozuka were second and third, respectively. All three will compete in Vancouver, as will the brother/sister ice dance team of Cathy and Chris Reed.

Asada's victory at Nationals helped turn around a sour season thus far. She was handily defeated by World champ Yu-Na Kim in Paris in October, and then fell to sixth at the Rostelecom Cup a week later. Though her triple Axel was downgraded in the short program this weekend, she hit a beautiful triple Axel/double toe loop combination in her free skate to take the title by more than 8 points overall. While her programs this season are still dreadful, Asada still has every ounce of talent it takes to be an Olympic champion.



Suzuki (shown above), only fourth after the short program, rallied to finish second in the free skate and overall. She landed seven solid triple jumps, with a minor, uncharacteristic trip being her only mistake. After battling back from anorexia at age 24, Suzuki appears to be the heavy emotional favorite heading into the Games. However, she is also shaping up to be a heavy medal contender, too. Already this season, Suzuki has defeated World silver medalist Joannie Rochette of Canada, the American trio of Rachael Flatt, Mirai Nagasu, and Ashley Wagner, and Italy's Carolina Kostner. With continued improvement, I have no doubt that Suzuki could be the darkhorse in Vancouver, with the potential to defeat teammates Asada and Ando, who have looked shaky at best so far this season. Ando, who clinched an Olympic spot by virtue of her silver-medal finish at the Grand Prix Final earlier this month, skated cautiously and conservatively here, finishing a distant fourth.

Perhaps the most unlucky skater once again is Yukari Nakano. Four years ago, she won bronze at the Grand Prix Final and defeated Ando at Nationals, yet she was still left off the team. Ando was sent to Torino where she finished 15th, while Nakano went to the World Championships a month later and was fifth. Even with a third place finish this year at Nationals, Nakano finds herself off the team once again because Ando was already guaranteed a spot as the highest Japanese GPF finisher. After being so successful in the 2.5 years following Torino, Nakano has been on somewhat of a downward slide since last year's Nationals, and her shaky performances on the Grand Prix series this year coupled with an underrotated triple Lutz in her long program yesterday means she'll be watching the action from home this February.

The Japanese ladies are arguably the deepest in the world, and any one of them could win an Olympic medal. The Olympic picture is rapidly developing with only 58 days until the ladies short program...

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Japanese Nationals results:
1. Mao Asada (204.62)
2. Akiko Suzuki (195.90)
3. Yukari Nakano (195.73)
4. Miki Ando (185.44)
5. Kanako Murakami (176.61)
6. Haruka Imai (166.16)
7. Fumie Suguri (161.29)

Asada prepares for final Olympic tune-up this week at Japanese Nationals

This hasn't exactly been a dream year for Japan's Mao Asada.

After winning the Japanese title last December, she was beaten by both Yu-Na Kim and Joannie Rochette at the Four Continents Championships, and placed a disappointing 4th at the World Championships.

Coming into this season, Asada seemed confident about her chances, but her performances at the Trophee Eric Bompard and Rostelecom Cup events in October were among the worst of her entire career. She could only muster up a 6th place finish in Russia, dashing any hope she had at making the Grand Prix Final in Tokyo earlier this month.

Skating fans on the Web and insiders around the world have been perplexed as to what her troubles are this season. Mao doesn't appear to be injured, nor is she completely unable to land her jumps (her practices at events this season have been stellar). Rather, the problem seems to lie with her competitive focus. Four years ago, Asada defeated World champ Irina Slutskaya at the Grand Prix Final, and though she was too young for the Torino Games in 2006, she established herself as the one to watch during this quadrennium.

Four years older, wiser, and with a World title under her belt, Asada's Olympic time has finally come, but will she be ready? The glare of the Japanese media spotlight is no doubt blinding at times, and the pressure for her and teammates Miki Ando, Yukari Nakano, Akiko Suzuki and Fumie Suguri has got to be immense. Will Mao follow in the footsteps of Midori Ito in 1992, a heavy favorite for Olympic gold yet burdened by the pressure of her home country?

I hope not, as Mao has so many wonderful qualities and is so capable of being a legitimate threat to Kim. However, her programs this season are nothing special, and they hide what makes Mao so great: her elegance, flow, speed, and clean lines.

It will be interesting to see whether she can rebound from a horrific season thus far and recapture some confidence this week at the Japanese Championships. Three Japanese women will make the trip to Vancouver, and while even a sub-par Asada is likely to go, she needs two solid performances here if she is to carry any momentum into the Games. World champion Kim has shown that she too is vulnerable this season, losing the free skate to Rachael Flatt at Skate America and the short program to Ando at the Grand Prix Final.

Mao Asada can be the 2010 Olympic champion, but not without drastic improvement. With uninspired, unartistic, and technically weak performances like she displayed on the Grand Prix Series, a medal of any color in Vancouver is likely out of the question.

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Predictions for the Japanese Nationals: (in no particular order): Ando, Suzuki, and Asada. Nakano was left off the team four years ago in a (controversial) decision, so it's heartbreaking to think that she could (and probably will) be left off the team once again in favor of Suzuki who has been having an incredible season, placing 3rd at the Grand Prix Final. Suguri, a two-time Olympian, should be a non-factor this year.

Notes from Nebelhorn & Musings from Minsk

The Nebelhorn Trophy wrapped up Saturday in Oberstdorf, Germany, and the Olympic field is set -- sort of.

Earning the remaining spots were:
Men: Switzerland, Austria, Germany, North Korea, Romania, Finland
Ladies: China, Hungary, Slovenia, Austria, Spain, Belgium
Pairs: Switzerland, Poland, Estonia, Italy
Ice Dance: China, Czech Republic, Estonia, Georgia, Hungary

Although it is still unknown as to which skaters will be representing these countries (along with the countries who qualified spots at the World Championships in March), the Olympic picture is slowly developing. One skater who will most likely be there is 2006 Olympic silver medalist Stephane Lambiel of Switzerland. Lambiel buried the competition here in Oberstdorf, and now only has to pass the requirements of the Swiss Olympic Committee (which he will surely do) in order to skate in Vancouver.

On the ladies' side, American Alissa Czisny won her second straight Nebelhorn title, but only on the strength of her short program. She was only credited with two clean triples in her free skate in what was a messy and error-prone event overall. China's Yan Liu won the free skate and placed third overall to qualify a spot for her country in Vancouver, while Hungary's Julia Sebestyen placed fourth but still earned a berth to her fourth consecutive Olympic Games.

In ice dancing, United States champions Meryl Davis and Charlie White performed their "Phantom of the Opera" free dance for the first time internationally this season, and accumulated over 100 points for it. Their total competition score of 200.46 points was more than 30 points higher than the second place finishers, Alexandra Zaretski and Roman Zaretski of Israel. Davis and White's total score at Nebelhorn was .10 points higher than what they received at the World Championshps last March, but would have been enough to earn them the bronze medal at that event. Clearly, they are already on the right track this season.

Over in Minsk, Belarus, the fourth Junior Grand Prix event of the season wrapped up. Russia's Polina Shelepen delivered another solid free skate to win her second JGP event of the season. Japan's Yuki Nishino was second, and Ksenia Makarova of Russia was third. Kristiene Gong was the top U.S. lady, finishing 4th.

In the men's event, Minnesota-native Eliot Halverson was the top American finisher, placing 5th. Russia's Artur Gachinski and China's Nan Song were in a class of their own, each finishing with over 178 points and winning gold and silver, respectively.

China went 1-2 in the pairs event, with Canadians Hole/Johnson winning the bronze medal after taking gold in Lake Placid last earlier this season. Rachel Tibbetts and Collin Brubaker won the silver medal in ice dancing - their first-ever JGP medal - behind Russians Ksenia Monko and Kirill Khaliavin.

Shelepen has mathematically qualified for the Junior Grand Prix Final, and it appears as though Makarova will qualify as well. Hole/Johnson have also qualified in the pairs event.

The Junior Grand Prix series continues this week in Dresden, Germany. Angela Maxwell (United States) and Isabelle Olsson (Sweden) are both medal winners already this season, and both will be in contention in Germany. Minnesota-native Kiri Baga makes her international debut, and with her strong spins, spirals and jumps, could definitely factor in for a medal.

Mid-competition thoughts from the Nebelhorn Trophy and the JGP - Belarus

The skating season has *officially* begun.

Senior-level skaters from across the globe have gathered in Oberstdorf, Germany, for the Nebelhorn Trophy, a.ka., the Olympic qualifying event. For nations that have already qualified spots for the 2010 Olympic Winter Games in Vancouver, the competition serves as a tune-up event for their skaters, allowing them the chance to get their programs in front of an international panel of judges early in the season (i.e., the American skaters competing here are simply competing for the experience, although they are not necessarily the skaters who will be representing the U.S. in Vancouver). For skaters from other countries, however, the event has a much more significant meaning.

Up for grabs are four Olympic spots in pairs, six in the mens and ladies events, and five in ice dancing. One skater hoping to nab a berth is Stephane Lambiel of Switzerland, the 2006 Olympic silver medalist and a two-time World champion. Back for another season, Lambiel currently has the lead after the short program with 77.45 points. The Czech Republic's Michal Brezina sits in second place (73.23) and American Ryan Bradley nabbed the third spot (68.18) after landing a quad toe loop-triple toe loop combination but falling on his circular step sequence.

In pairs, two-time and reigning World champs Aliona Savchenko and Robin Szolkowy accumulated 72.80 points for their short program, and have a commanding 13-point lead over the second place team of Volosozhar/Morozov (Ukraine). 2007 American champions Brooke Castile and Ben Okolski sit fourth with 51.70 points.

The United States' Meryl Davis and Charlie White displayed their consistency once again, winning both the compulsory (37.62) and original dances (62.08) in Oberstdorf. Apparently their original dance to Indian "Bollywood" music is full of difficult and unique choreography, and was well-received by the audience. I, for one, can't wait to see it! They will take a huge total of 99.70 points into the final segment - the free dance - on Saturday.

The other big skating event going on this week is the Junior Grand Prix in Minsk, Belarus. After today's competition, the results are as follows:

Ice Dance (Compulsory Dance):
1. Monko/Khaliavin, RUS, 33.74
2. Routhier/Saucke-Lacelle, CAN, 31.91
3. Agafonova/Dun, UKR, 30.22
4. Tibbetts/Brubaker, USA, 30.16

Ladies (Short Program):
1. Polina Shelepen, RUS, 49.65
2. Ksenia Makarova, RUS, 49.08
3. Kristiene Gong, USA, 47.42
4. Jasmine Alexandra Costa, EST, 46.93

Pairs (Short Program):
1. Sui/Han, CHN, 50.67
2. Stolbova/Klimov, RUS, 49.52
3. Zhang/Wang, CHN, 49.33
4. Cheng/Gao, CHN, 46.47

The men's short program is tomorrow, along with the original dance and the ladies free skate. Look for the ladies final result to be the same (Shelepen/Makarova/Gong), but I wouldn't be surprised if there was a lot of movement in pairs. Canadians Kaleigh Hole and Adam Johnson (gold medalists at the JGP Lake Placid) are currently 7th but most definitely within striking distance (only about four points out of third).

U.S. ladies look to rebound after lackluster quadrennium

It's no secret that the last three years haven't gone so well for the American ladies on the senior international stage. Up against Korean phenom Yu-Na Kim and a strong Japanese contingent in Mao Asada, Miki Ando and Yukari Nakano, U.S. female skaters have struggled to capture gold in international events. Add in Canadian star Joannie Rochette and Italy's Carolina Kostner, and even making the podium has been a daunting task.

I don't think it's entirely fair, however, to say that the talent pool has dried up in American ladies figure skating. Michelle Kwan's decade of dominance and Sasha Cohen's strong international record may have spoiled us a bit, and when we don't hear the "Star Spangled Banner" play at World championships or Grand Prix events, we begin to assume that our skaters just aren't that good.

In my opinion, that's a selfish mentality to have. We have so many bright young hopes in the United States, but that's exactly what they are -- young. Rachael Flatt just turned 17 last month, but she has already claimed two National silver medals, a Junior World title and, in March, skated her way to an astonishing 5th place at the World Championships. Mirai Nagasu won the 2008 U.S. title at age 14, and has two Junior World medals to her credit as well. 16-year old Caroline Zhang has three Junior World medals -- including a gold in 2007 -- and finished third in the World Team Trophy in April behind Asada and Rochette, the current World silver medalist who she only trailed by less than seven points.

And that's not even half the talent. Ashley Wagner, Angela Maxwell and Alexe Gilles have all recorded strong showings on the senior and/or junior international stages. Five of the possible eight spots at last year's Junior Grand Prix Final were won by U.S. ladies, and Becky Bereswill and Gilles finished 1st and 3rd there, respectively. American women have won eight of the last nine Junior World medals, and swept the podium in 2007 and 2008.

The purpose of this post isn't to make excuses for the performances/results of U.S. ladies, or to try and make it seem like solid junior results will result in senior international medals the next season, because many times they don't. However, I think it is important to realize that the absence of Kwan and Cohen have thrust our relatively inexperienced skaters into the spotlight. Yes, the results haven't been ideal since the 2006 Olympics, and yes, the United States only qualified two women for the upcoming Vancouver games, but I think there's been a lot of learning experiences and many positives to take away from the past three years.

In order to be more competitive with the top international ladies, our American girls must focus on fully rotating their triple jumps in order to avoid harsh downgrades, increasing their speed (which will then boost their Program Component Scores) and putting two clean programs together. Staying healthy and injury free will also be important to achieving better international results.

Anything is possible in Vancouver, even an American lady sneaking in for an Olympic medal. It will take two perfect programs and probably some mistakes from a few of the top skaters, but I'm not counting anyone out yet. The uber-consistent Flatt and Zhang will definitely be podium threats if they qualify for the Games, and one can't forget Nagasu or Wagner, either; both have a style that is very well received by international judges.

With a few more years of experience and some growth, there is no doubt in my mind that our girls will be vying for gold medals once more.

Michelle Kwan's long-awaited return to the ice

America's most decorated skater is lacing up her skates once again.

No, 5-time World and 9-time National champion Michelle Kwan isn't returning to competition. She is, however, making her first on-ice appearance in front of a crowd in three years this weekend as she stars in Yu-Na Kim's "Ice All Stars" show in Korea. 2009 World champion Kim is arguably Korea's biggest superstar, and her ice show is bringing together some of skating's biggest talent: two-time World champs Aliona Savchenko and Robin Szolkowy of Germany, Olympic silver medalist Stephane Lambiel of Switzerland and reigning Olympic champ Shizuka Arakawa of Japan.

Kwan's programs ("Carmina Burana" and "Winter Song") are without a doubt the most anticipated, though. After being forced to withdraw from the 2006 Olympics due to a nagging hip injury, she underwent arthroscopic surgery and returned to the classroom to pursue a degree in international studies. Kwan earned her bachelors degree in June from Denver University and will attend graduate school at Tufts University this fall.

In essence, it appears as though Kwan's eligible career is over. She turned 29 last month and would be 33 by the time the 2014 Olympics roll around. Although I wouldn't put it past her to keep going that long, she has nothing left to prove (despite what her detractors might say). Kwan is the most decorated skater the United States has ever produced. With nine overall World medals (1996-2004) and 12 National medals (1994-2005, and the title holder from 1998-2005), it will be years -- if ever -- before her record is matched. Her two Olympic medals cement her status as one of the best ever.

It's only a matter of time before she is inducted into the U.S. Figure Skating, World Figure Skating, and U.S. Olympic halls of fame. She may not be in the Code of Points record books, but her spirit and influence on the figure skating world will last forever (not to mention her record 43 perfect 6.0's at Nationals).

Who will ever forget how she so stunningly silenced her critics and regained her National crown in 1998? Or how she came from behind to capture back-to-back World titles in 2000 and 2001? Or how she buried the competition in 2003 en route to her fifth World gold? These moments are forever etched into skating history.

She is the skater of our generation. Her staying-power, consistency and ability to triumph in the face of adversity are the things legends are made of.

Michelle Kwan is the gold standard for ladies figure skating; she will not be forgotten.

Evora & Ladwig on the fast track to Vancouver

Will this finally be the year that U.S. pairs skaters Amanda Evora and Mark Ladwig step out of the shadows and into the spotlight?

As one of the older and more experienced teams in the world of American pairs skating, Evora and Ladwig have yet to establish themselves as legitimate contenders for a National title or a World team spot.

They appeared to be on the right track in 2007 with a 4th place pewter medal finish at the U.S. Championships. After solid showings at international events in the fall of '07, they succumbed to pressure and dropped to 5th - and off the podium - in 2008. A shaky Grand Prix Series campaign last fall had many (including myself) doubting they could regain a spot on the national podium. However, a breathtaking free skate last January in Cleveland erased those doubts, and now it seems as though they are truly on the "up and up."

So far this season, the team has competed at both the Liberty summer competition and the Indy pairs challenge. At Indy, the team skated two outstanding programs to finish a strong 2nd behind former U.S. champs Brooke Castile and Ben Okolski, but ahead of '09 silver medalists and Worlds 9th place finishers Caydee Denney and Jeremy Barrett.

Ironically, it could be Denney/Barrett motivating Evora and Ladwig to be better this season. Both teams train under Jim Peterson in Florida, and watching Caydee and Jeremy shine in their Worlds debut last March just might light a fire under Amanda and Mark.

Armed with two fantastic programs, innovative lifts, and more confident side-by-side triple jumps, Evora and Ladwig are also getting the nod from the judges with very strong Program Component Scores (they scored 54.32 for PCS in their Indy free skate). It could very well be these elements that help them clinch one of the two available Olympic spots.

The American pairs scene could get very interesting this season. Two-time and reigning National champions Keauna McLaughlin and Rockne Brubaker are adjusting to a new coaching situation and recovering from surgery (Brubaker), and '06 Olympians Rena Inoue and John Baldwin seem to be on the decline. I'm not counting anyone out yet, but if Amanda and Mark can stay healthy, focused, and consistent, they could be the surprise champions in Spokane come January.

And plus - Mark is a fellow Minnesotan, so I have to root for the "home team!"

Watch Evora/Ladwig's short program from Indy here thanks to HeatherC from FSU!

Brian Orser: World's most sought after coach?

This is going to be a monumental year for Brian Orser.

Twenty-two years after his last experience at the Games, Orser hopes to coach his protege - Yu-Na Kim of Korea - to an Olympic gold medal. Like Orser did, Kim will enter the competition as the reigning world champion and, like Orser, will be skating on "home ice" in Canada. However, both hope that the similarities end there (Orser was defeated by the United States' Brian Boitano in Calgary in 1988 and had to settle for his second straight Olympic silver medal).

Kim appears to be in a good place, though. Her high-flying triple jumps and massive Program Component Scores allowed her to bury the competition at Worlds this year. At that event, she set records for the highest ladies short program score ever (76.12) and the highest overall score (207.71). She beat silver medalist Joannie Rochette of Canada by over 16 points and her biggest rival, Japan's Mao Asada, by nearly 20 points. Asada, the '08 world champ, fell (literally) to a disappointing 4th place this year.

Regardless of the scores, Kim has clearly flourished under Orser's tutelage. So much so that American Adam Rippon moved to Toronto to train with him last fall as well. With Orser at the boards, Rippon defended his World Junior title in March, hitting two picture perfect triple Axels and accumulating an astounding competition score of 222.00. That marked him as the fourth-highest scoring U.S. man internationally last season (behind veterans Evan Lysacek, Jeremy Abbott and Johnny Weir), and distinguishes him as a legitimate contender for a 2010 Olympic berth.

Orser's influence doesn't end there. His most recent student is 2009 U.S. junior bronze medalist Christina Gao. As a novice in 2008, Gao fell numerous times and finished 12th (a.k.a., last) in the national competition. In her '09 junior freeskate last January, she again fell three times but hung on for the bronze medal in an underwhelming and relatively weak field. However, her months spent with Orser in Canada have proven to be beneficial already. Gao competed in the Skate Detroit event in late July and reeled off six effortless triple jumps in her long program, racking up more than 108 points for the program and earning a total competition score of over 164 points.

The improvement in all three of these skaters since being coached by Orser has been more than just technical. His friendly demeanor and calming presence has elevated Kim to greatness already in her short senior career (two Grand Prix Final titles, a Four Continents championship, two World bronze medals, and a World championship). Rippon also appears to be on the right track, and 15-year old Gao is certainly poised to make a splash in her senior National debut this season as well.

When ya got it, ya got it, and Orser has definitely proven his worth as an elite coach.