2011 U.S. Nationals Fun with Numbers: Ladies

And last but certainly not least, here are the ladies.

For the sole purpose of enjoyment, speculation and "what ifs," I've compiled a list of the average scores of all the senior-level skaters who will be at Nationals next month. Listed below are the pairs overall, short program and free skate scores averaged from all competitions this fall (JGP events, GP events, JGP/GP Finals, Senior B's, Regionals, Sectionals).

Please comment with your thoughts, opinions, Nationals predictions, etc!

Senior Ladies

Average Overall Scores:
1. Alissa Czisny (168.60)
2. Mirai Nagasu (157.01)
3. Christina Gao (155.94)
4. Ashley Wagner (155.38)
5. Agnes Zawadzki (155.20)
6. Vanessa Lam (152.45)

7. Rachael Flatt (150.49)
8. Yasmin Siraj (144.45)
9. Kiri Baga (138.00)
10. Samantha Cesario (134.13)
11. Caroline Zhang (133.18)
12. Amanda Dobbs (131.91)

13. Kristiene Gong (131.44)
14. Melissa Bulanhagui (130.63)
15. Alexe Gilles (127.77)
16. Joelle Forte (126.75)
17. Danielle Kahle (126.63)

18. Felicia Zhang (123.16)
19. Morgan Bell (119.51)
20. Kelsey Traunero (118.92)
21. Keli Zhou (117.14)

22. Kristine Musademba (116.77)
23. Katy Jo West (114.99)
24. Tatyana Khazova (114.81)
25. Ellie Kawamura (109.82)


Average SP Scores:
1. Mirai Nagasu (58.74)
2. Alissa Czisny (58.05)
3. Agnes Zawadzki (57.87)
4. Ashley Wagner (54.55)
5. Vanessa Lam (53.35)
6. Caroline Zhang (50.69)
7. Rachael Flatt (49.97)
8. Kiri Baga (49.92)
9. Christina Gao (49.90)
10. Joelle Forte (47.65)
11. Samantha Cesario (47.27)
12. Kristiene Gong (46.80)
13. Amanda Dobbs (46.28)
14. Melissa Bulanhagui (46.09)
15. Felicia Zhang (45.95)
16. Yasmin Siraj (45.49)
17. Danielle Kahle (44.92)
18. Tatyana Khazova (44.30)
19. Morgan Bell (42.77)
20. Kristine Musademba (42.66)
21. Alexe Gilles (42.43)
22. Keli Zhou (39.30)
23. Kelsey Traunero (39.03)
24. Ellie Kawamura (38.44)
25. Katy Jo West (38.42)


Average FS Scores:
1. Alissa Czisny (110.55)
2. Christina Gao (106.04)
3. Ashley Wagner (100.83)
4. Rachael Flatt (100.52)
5. Vanessa Lam (99.10)
6. Yasmin Siraj (98.96)
7. Mirai Nagasu (98.27)
8. Agnes Zawadzki (97.33)
9. Kiri Baga (88.08)
10. Samantha Cesario (86.86)
11. Amanda Dobbs (85.63)
12. Alexe Gilles (85.34)
13. Kristiene Gong (84.64)
14. Melissa Bulanhagui (84.54)
15. Caroline Zhang (82.49)
16. Danielle Kahle (81.71)
17. Kelsey Traunero (79.89)
18. Joelle Forte (79.10)
19. Keli Zhou (77.84)
20. Felicia Zhang (77.21)
21. Morgan Bell (76.74)
22. Katy Jo West (76.57)
23. Kristine Musademba (74.11)
24. Ellie Kawamura (71.38)
25. Tatyana Khazova (70.51)

Remember these names

Though the 2006-2010 quadrennium was a relatively disappointing one for U.S. ladies skaters, there does appear to be a light at the end of the tunnel. This past season, both Mirai Nagasu and Rachael Flatt proved that they can be competitive against the world's best. Here are four new fresh faces hoping to join them on the international scene and make their mark as the next generation.

Christina Gao

• 2009-10 Junior Grand Prix Final bronze medalist
• 2010 U.S. Championships - 5th place

Gao has improved tremendously in the past year since working with Brian Orser, coach of Olympic champ Yu-Na Kim. In 2008, she was dead last in the novice ladies event at Nationals, and in 2009 she was only 3rd in the junior division with a lackluster free skate. Improved mental focus and better jump technique has propelled her to the top group as a junior internationally, as well as on the senior national stage. Her triple flip is one of the best in the world, and her solid triple toe-triple toe combination will be a key element as she hopes to continue her ascent up the rankings. Realistically, Gao has a fantastic shot at making the senior World team next season, especially since Sasha Cohen won't be back and if Flatt decides to focus on college. Her resemblance to a young Michelle Kwan is uncanny.

Agnes Zawadzki

• 2010 Junior World silver medalist
• 2010 U.S. junior National champion

After failing to make the U.S. Championships in 2009, Zawadzki rebounded in a big way this season, taking the U.S. junior title and winning the silver medal at the Junior World Championships last month -- her first-ever international event. Zawadzki is a complete skater, armed with huge jumps, high-scoring spins, solid edges and nice flexibility. Like Gao, she will definitely be contending for a senior national medal in 2011, and could very well find herself on the senior World team as well. By improving her speed and getting her triple flip under control, she will be a force to be reckoned with, both nationally and internationally.

Kiri Baga

• 2009 U.S. novice National champion
• 2-time Junior Grand Prix gold medalist
• 2010 U.S. junior National pewter medalist (4th)

Minnesota's own Kiri Baga had quite the breakthrough season in 2009-10. After winning the '09 novice National title, Baga competed internationally for the first time last fall, winning both of her Junior Grand Prix events before placing 7th at the final. A rough outing at Nationals this year left her in 4th place, but she redeemed herself at the Junior World Championships last month by placing 6th in a deep field. Baga has "future star" written all over her, and her charisma, style and attack is reminiscent of a young Sasha Cohen. She possesses every quality needed to be world champion. All she needs now is time mature and refine her skating, and develop consistency on the more difficult triples (the flip and the Lutz). Keep your eye on this one...

Samantha Cesario

• 2010 U.S. Championships - 15th
• 2010 Gardena Spring Trophy champion (junior)

Speaking of Cohen...it's no secret that young Samantha Cesario looks up to her. Gifted with beautiful lines, exquisite spins and an amazing on-ice presence, Cesario seems to have it all. However, under rotated jumps plagued her at many competitions last season, including the U.S. Championships where she was dinged on nearly every triple jump attempt. She finished 15th in her senior national debut in Spokane this year, but was able to successfully regroup for the Gardena Spring Trophy last week in Italy where she was given full credit for all of her triple jumps. If she continues to improve at that rapid rate over the summer, there's no stopping this girl.

Nagasu jumps to lead at World Championships

16-year old Mirai Nagasu of Arcadia, Calif., stormed to the lead after the ladies short program at the 2010 World Figure Skating Championships in Torino, Italy. She attempted a triple Lutz-triple toe loop combination, and while the second jump was likely under rotated, her inspired performance was still enough to grab first place with a personal best score of 70.40 points.

Olympic silver medalist Mao Asada of Japan currently sits second after being downgraded on her triple Axel attempt. She was able to accumulate 68.08 points, ahead of Finland's Laura Lepisto, currently third with 64.30.

Perhaps the biggest surprise of the night was the disastrous short program of Olympic champion Yu-Na Kim. She opened strong with a triple Lutz-triple toe loop combination, but then under rotated a triple flip and botched her layback spin, and unusual mistake for the defending champ. Kim also lost her balance on her spiral sequence, giving up more valuable points. She is currently 7th, more than 10 points behind Nagasu but still very much in the gold medal hunt, as her personal best free skate score is more than 15 points higher than any of the ladies competing.

American champion Rachael Flatt doubled the second jump in her planned triple flip-triple toe loop combination and scored 60.88 points, good enough for 6th place at the moment.

Full results

U.S. Nationals: Senior ladies practice notes (Friday 1/22)

I attended the championship ladies free skate practice today. Below are some jump notes and impressions:

Alexe Gilles looks very strong. She hit numerous triple Lutzes and triple flips, and had a mostly clean run through. She looked relaxed and confident, and I think she will rebound very nicely after last night's rough short program.

Sasha Cohen looked like a completely different skater after her stunning short program last night. During her run through, she opened with a triple Lutz-double toe-double toe combination (wrong edge take off on the Lutz), but then fell hard on the triple loop. She also hit a nice triple flip. Sasha did not do a very complete run through (even leaving out much of the choreography) and this may come back to haunt her. She has always been a strong short program skater, but the real test will come tomorrow in the free skate which she hasn't trained as much as the other girls on the competition.

Alissa Czisny looked confident, hitting all of her jumps during her run through. I didn't see any major errors from her; she looks in prime form.

Christina Gao could be a surprise threat tomorrow. She hit a number of beautiful triple-triple combinations and had a mostly clean run through as well. She is looking confident and much improved under the tutelage of Brian Orser.

Amanda Dobbs had a rough practice. I don't think she'll be able to maintain her current 6th place standing.

Rachael Flatt had a decent run through. She turned out of the landing on her double Axel (it looked very close to the boards) and then doubled a planned triple flip combination. She regrouped to hit her last four jump elements, and also hit many other jumps during the session, including a perfectly clean triple Lutz-triple loop combination. She coudl very well take the title tomorrow.

Mirai Nagasu looked the best I have ever seen her. I did not see one underrotated jump. Her technique is so refined and pure now; she is able to rotate triples with ease and confidence. She also looked very happy which was nice to see. Her run through had one fall, but during the session she also landed multiple double Axel-triple toe combinations and even one (clean) triple Lutz-triple toe.

Melissa Bulanhagui looks quite strong, too. Her triple Lutz is a thing of beauty, and her run-through was excellent. Look for her to move up in the standings tomorrow.

Emily Hughes had a rough practice session, and an even worse run through. She doubled or singled almost every triple attempt. She did land a triple toe, but it looked very suspicious rotation-wise. She won't factor into the medals, or even the top 8 really.

Bebe Liang looked ok. I saw one fall on a triple loop but I missed the rest of her run through. I also missed Ashley Wagner's run through, but I heard that she did fairly well.

Flatt stakes claim for an Olympic medal

Two very important things were learned at last weekend's Skate America competition in Lake Placid: 1) Rachael Flatt is looking more and more like an Olympic podium threat, and 2) Yu-Na Kim is not unbeatable -- er, sorta.

The two entered Sunday's free skate ranked first and second, with Kim holding a massive 18 point lead over her young American challenger. Though she still won the overall competition by a comfortable 13 points, Kim lost the final round to Flatt by nearly five points -- the first time she has defeated the World champion Kim in any segment of any event.

After falling on her triple flip-triple toe loop combination in the short program, Flatt rallied in her long program, nailing her opening double Axel straight out of a spiral and then going on to hit the triple/triple (of which she received full credit and a positive Grade of Execution) along with five other solid triple jumps. Her final footwork sequence showcased solid edges and an incredible amount of joy, bringing the audience to its feet. Her only real glitch occurred on her final combination spin, which she received no credit for because she re-centered the second part of the spin too far away from the first. Nonetheless, Flatt recorded a new personal best free skate score of 116.11 points, and an overall tally of 174.91, making her the third highest scoring lady in the world so far this season.

Kim had what was probably her worst free skate since the 2007 World championships. Her triple Lutz-triple toe loop combination was underrotated and she went down on the triple flip, a jump that also gave her problems at her first Grand Prix event in Paris. Kim's program to George Gershwin music also had a few other minor stumbles and lacked her trademark spark and attack. In a season where she has already set three new world records, her 111.70 free skate feels like a disappointment.

While Flatt will probably just miss out on qualifying for the Grand Prix Final, Kim will be there, hoping to avenge her poor skate in Lake Placid. This weekend's last Grand Prix event, Skate Canada, will officially determine the rest of the Finals fields. In the ladies event, Canadian Joannie Rochette will need to place in the top 2 to have a shot, and Japan's Akiko Suzuki needs to finish no worse than fourth to qualify. Americans Mirai Nagasu, Caroline Zhang and Alissa Czisny will also try to qualify, though it is unlikely that any will advance to the Final.

Lysacek, Flatt looking to rebound at Skate America

After less-than-perfect starts to the season, Americans Evan Lysacek and Rachael Flatt look to rebound this weekend at Skate America, the fifth stop on the 2009-10 ISU Grand Prix of Figure Skating Series.

Lysacek is coming off a silver medal finish at the Cup of China two weeks ago, where he lost to Japan's Nobunari Oda by just over 7 points. While he still scored a respectable 232.17 points there, he also had two jumps downgraded. Nonetheless, the gold medal is his to lose this weekend in Lake Placid, as his main competition will come from the Czech Republic's Tomas Verner, the silver medalist from the Trophee Eric Bompard event a month ago. Lysacek has said that he will not be putting the quad in either of his programs here, instead opting to save it for the U.S. National championships and the Olympic Games later this season.

Flatt also began her season two weeks ago at the Cup of China, though she was only able to manage a disappointing 4th place. A podium finish there was definitely the expectation, and now her chance to make the Grand Prix Final is all but gone (she would need two win this competition to qualify for the Final, which is virtually impossible with World champ Yu-Na Kim in the field). Still, Flatt definitely gets better as the season progresses, and with more time to train her programs and feedback from the judges in China, she is the clear silver-medal favorite.

Other contenders in the men's event include fellow Americans Brandon Mroz and Ryan Bradley, while the United States' Alexe Gilles will battle for bronze with a slew of international competitors like Fumie Suguri, Susanna Poykio and Elene Gedevanishvili.

In pairs, look for China's Xue Shen and Hongbo Zhao to claim gold like they did in China two weeks ago, with teammates Dan Zhang and Hao Zhang the front runners for second place. Americans Keauna McLaughlin and Rockne Brubaker, coming off a bronze medal at the Cup of Russia, will have to contend with both Tatiana Volosozhar and Stanislav Morozov, and Meagan Duhamel and Craig Buntin for the third spot on the podium.

Tanith Belbin and Ben Agosto should easily win their second Grand Prix title of the season, and I predict that Russia's Jana Khokhlova and Sergei Novitski will take second, with Italy's Anna Cappellini and Luca Lanotte winning bronze. Reigning World Junior champs Madison Chock and Greg Zuerlein out of Canton, Mich., have a great shot at a top-five finish here after placing 8th at their senior international debut at the Cup of China.

Injured Cohen out of this week's Skate America

Sasha Cohen withdrew from Skate America today, citing a nagging case of tendinitis in her right calf. The 2006 Olympic silver medalist also withdrew from her first planned Grand Prix event - Trophee Eric Bompard - a month ago, meaning that her first event of the season will be the U.S. Nationals in January. This certainly doesn't bode well for her hopes of making a third Olympic team.

While there's no doubt that a five-triple jump Cohen could be competitive with many of the top ladies today, she needed to test her programs in front of an international panel of judges and in front of an audience. After a three-year hiatus from competitive skating, it was crucial that she get back into a competitive mindset, and her two fall events would have given her the perfect opportunity to do that. Now, should she show up at Nationals, Cohen will be competing against the top U.S. ladies for only two Olympic spots - ladies that have been gaining mileage on their programs this season, feedback from judges, and confidence in their ability to perform them well. I know injuries happen, but Cohen should have started her comeback earlier than this past June if she hopes to make a return trip to the Games.

Even if she shows up in Spokane and wins a medal, there's certainly no guarantee that she would be granted a spot on the team. This year, U.S. Figure Skating will not choose the Olympic team based solely on the results of Nationals (not even the gold medalist is guaranteed a spot). Instead, the team will be chosen based upon the results of a number of events: the Grand Prix series, the Grand Prix Final (should any qualify), and at last year's World championships. Based upon this criteria, Ashley Wagner currently looks to be one of the front-runners for the team, as she has medaled in both of her Grand Prix events and has an excellent chance at making the Final in Tokyo in December. Rachael Flatt, although not stellar at the Cup of China, looks poised to make the team as well, thanks to her consistency and a solid fifth-place finish at her first-ever Worlds last March.

Flatt competes again at Skate America this weekend, where her main competition will come from Korea's Yu-Na Kim. A silver-medal finish in Lake Placid, NY, will further increase her chances of making the team, though she, and the rest of the American women, will still need to deliver at Nationals.

As for Cohen, her comeback just got more complicated, though not entirely impossible. After all, she does have the most experience of any of the currently competing U.S. ladies and she is the only one with Olympic experience. On the other hand, she has never been one to handle pressure well, and if she's still struggling with injury come January, the chances that she'll be on top of her game are slim.

I can't think of a year when the ladies event was more unpredictable than it is this year...

Shen, Zhao hit comeback trail at Cup of China

Finally, a comeback worth getting excited about.

Three-time World pairs champions and two-time Olympic bronze medalists Xue Shen and Hongbo Zhao of China will skate for the first time in 2.5 years tomorrow at the Cup of China, the third stop on the ISU Grand Prix of Figure Skating series.

The sentimental favorites of so many in the skating community, Shen and Zhao are looking very strong for so early in the season. In a practice clip from Chinese TV, the pair landed beautiful side-by-side triple toe loops, a soaring triple twist and huge throw triple jumps.

The duo dominated the years leading up to Torino, winning two World titles and nearly every Grand Prix event in which they entered. Before the 2006 Games, however, Zhao suffered a ruptured Achilles tendon. Surgery and rehab followed, but their participation in the Games was in severe jeopardy. In they end, they rallied back from a fifth place finish in the short program there to take the bronze overall, a medal they also won four years prior in Salt Lake City.

The team went undefeated in the 2006-07 season, capping it off with a third World championship and a marriage proposal. They toured with Stars on Ice and performed in numerous shows, but their "unfinished business" with the Olympics has clearly led them back for another shot at the gold medal--and the chance to go out on their own terms.

Though the German team of Aliona Savchenko and Robin Szolkowy have won the past two World championships, the Olympic gold medal is far from theirs yet. This is figure skating, after all, and anything can happen. If Shen and Zhao can remain healthy throughout the season, I see no reason why they can't be the top team in Vancouver. The top Russian, Canadian and American teams are either inconsistent, relatively new to the international scene, or both. The other two Chinese pairs lack the finesse and experience of Shen and Zhao. I repeat: anything is possible, especially at the Olympics.

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The Cup of China will also feature the season debuts of World champion Evan Lysacek and four-time World medalists Tanith Belbin and Ben Agosto. Japan's Nobunari Oda could provide some stiff competition for Lysacek, but look for Joannie Rochette of Canada to take gold in the ladies event, with Americans Rachael Flatt and Mirai Nagasu battling it out for the remaining podium spots with Japan's Akiko Suzuki and Italy's Carolina Kostner.

Flatt shines with new short

Rachael Flatt isn't resting on her laurels this Olympic season.

The 17-year old star from Colorado Springs, Colo., knows that it will take a consistent season and two fantastic programs to get to Vancouver in February, which is why she has once again enlisted the help of choreographer Lori Nichol. The result? A fantastic new short program to "Sing, Sing, Sing!" that has already proven to be a crowd pleaser.

Flatt has climbed the national and international skating ranks by displaying awe-inspiring consistency, secure jumps and the ability to thrive under pressure. At times, her skating has lacked any real audience connection -- that extra "spark" -- that past great American female figure skaters have been known for. To boost her Program Component Scores, Flatt and Nichol spent hours searching through music and crafting well thought out programs. Additionally, Flatt is being mentored by 1976 Olympic champion Dorothy Hamill, and the improvement in her skating is quite noticeable.

Flatt performed her new programs at the Golden West Championships last weekend in Culver City, Calif. While her new free skate to "Rhapsody on a Theme of Paganini" understandably needs more time to "gel" (it is only September, after all), her short program is already world-class.



Her jumps are solid as ever, but for the first time in a long, long time, Rachael truly "comes alive" on the ice. From the opening beats she perfectly captures the jazzy feeling of the big-band music and carries that theme throughout the entire program. Her final footwork sequence is the best I have seen so far this season, and could very well bring down the house at the U.S. Championships if she skates with the same verve and attack that she showed here.

While her spins and posture could still use a bit more refinement, Flatt is definitely on the right track this season. If she continues to train smart, keep her cool and remain healthy, she should easily maintain her status as an Olympic team favorite.

U.S. ladies look to rebound after lackluster quadrennium

It's no secret that the last three years haven't gone so well for the American ladies on the senior international stage. Up against Korean phenom Yu-Na Kim and a strong Japanese contingent in Mao Asada, Miki Ando and Yukari Nakano, U.S. female skaters have struggled to capture gold in international events. Add in Canadian star Joannie Rochette and Italy's Carolina Kostner, and even making the podium has been a daunting task.

I don't think it's entirely fair, however, to say that the talent pool has dried up in American ladies figure skating. Michelle Kwan's decade of dominance and Sasha Cohen's strong international record may have spoiled us a bit, and when we don't hear the "Star Spangled Banner" play at World championships or Grand Prix events, we begin to assume that our skaters just aren't that good.

In my opinion, that's a selfish mentality to have. We have so many bright young hopes in the United States, but that's exactly what they are -- young. Rachael Flatt just turned 17 last month, but she has already claimed two National silver medals, a Junior World title and, in March, skated her way to an astonishing 5th place at the World Championships. Mirai Nagasu won the 2008 U.S. title at age 14, and has two Junior World medals to her credit as well. 16-year old Caroline Zhang has three Junior World medals -- including a gold in 2007 -- and finished third in the World Team Trophy in April behind Asada and Rochette, the current World silver medalist who she only trailed by less than seven points.

And that's not even half the talent. Ashley Wagner, Angela Maxwell and Alexe Gilles have all recorded strong showings on the senior and/or junior international stages. Five of the possible eight spots at last year's Junior Grand Prix Final were won by U.S. ladies, and Becky Bereswill and Gilles finished 1st and 3rd there, respectively. American women have won eight of the last nine Junior World medals, and swept the podium in 2007 and 2008.

The purpose of this post isn't to make excuses for the performances/results of U.S. ladies, or to try and make it seem like solid junior results will result in senior international medals the next season, because many times they don't. However, I think it is important to realize that the absence of Kwan and Cohen have thrust our relatively inexperienced skaters into the spotlight. Yes, the results haven't been ideal since the 2006 Olympics, and yes, the United States only qualified two women for the upcoming Vancouver games, but I think there's been a lot of learning experiences and many positives to take away from the past three years.

In order to be more competitive with the top international ladies, our American girls must focus on fully rotating their triple jumps in order to avoid harsh downgrades, increasing their speed (which will then boost their Program Component Scores) and putting two clean programs together. Staying healthy and injury free will also be important to achieving better international results.

Anything is possible in Vancouver, even an American lady sneaking in for an Olympic medal. It will take two perfect programs and probably some mistakes from a few of the top skaters, but I'm not counting anyone out yet. The uber-consistent Flatt and Zhang will definitely be podium threats if they qualify for the Games, and one can't forget Nagasu or Wagner, either; both have a style that is very well received by international judges.

With a few more years of experience and some growth, there is no doubt in my mind that our girls will be vying for gold medals once more.