2011 U.S. Nationals Fun with Numbers: Ladies

And last but certainly not least, here are the ladies.

For the sole purpose of enjoyment, speculation and "what ifs," I've compiled a list of the average scores of all the senior-level skaters who will be at Nationals next month. Listed below are the pairs overall, short program and free skate scores averaged from all competitions this fall (JGP events, GP events, JGP/GP Finals, Senior B's, Regionals, Sectionals).

Please comment with your thoughts, opinions, Nationals predictions, etc!

Senior Ladies

Average Overall Scores:
1. Alissa Czisny (168.60)
2. Mirai Nagasu (157.01)
3. Christina Gao (155.94)
4. Ashley Wagner (155.38)
5. Agnes Zawadzki (155.20)
6. Vanessa Lam (152.45)

7. Rachael Flatt (150.49)
8. Yasmin Siraj (144.45)
9. Kiri Baga (138.00)
10. Samantha Cesario (134.13)
11. Caroline Zhang (133.18)
12. Amanda Dobbs (131.91)

13. Kristiene Gong (131.44)
14. Melissa Bulanhagui (130.63)
15. Alexe Gilles (127.77)
16. Joelle Forte (126.75)
17. Danielle Kahle (126.63)

18. Felicia Zhang (123.16)
19. Morgan Bell (119.51)
20. Kelsey Traunero (118.92)
21. Keli Zhou (117.14)

22. Kristine Musademba (116.77)
23. Katy Jo West (114.99)
24. Tatyana Khazova (114.81)
25. Ellie Kawamura (109.82)


Average SP Scores:
1. Mirai Nagasu (58.74)
2. Alissa Czisny (58.05)
3. Agnes Zawadzki (57.87)
4. Ashley Wagner (54.55)
5. Vanessa Lam (53.35)
6. Caroline Zhang (50.69)
7. Rachael Flatt (49.97)
8. Kiri Baga (49.92)
9. Christina Gao (49.90)
10. Joelle Forte (47.65)
11. Samantha Cesario (47.27)
12. Kristiene Gong (46.80)
13. Amanda Dobbs (46.28)
14. Melissa Bulanhagui (46.09)
15. Felicia Zhang (45.95)
16. Yasmin Siraj (45.49)
17. Danielle Kahle (44.92)
18. Tatyana Khazova (44.30)
19. Morgan Bell (42.77)
20. Kristine Musademba (42.66)
21. Alexe Gilles (42.43)
22. Keli Zhou (39.30)
23. Kelsey Traunero (39.03)
24. Ellie Kawamura (38.44)
25. Katy Jo West (38.42)


Average FS Scores:
1. Alissa Czisny (110.55)
2. Christina Gao (106.04)
3. Ashley Wagner (100.83)
4. Rachael Flatt (100.52)
5. Vanessa Lam (99.10)
6. Yasmin Siraj (98.96)
7. Mirai Nagasu (98.27)
8. Agnes Zawadzki (97.33)
9. Kiri Baga (88.08)
10. Samantha Cesario (86.86)
11. Amanda Dobbs (85.63)
12. Alexe Gilles (85.34)
13. Kristiene Gong (84.64)
14. Melissa Bulanhagui (84.54)
15. Caroline Zhang (82.49)
16. Danielle Kahle (81.71)
17. Kelsey Traunero (79.89)
18. Joelle Forte (79.10)
19. Keli Zhou (77.84)
20. Felicia Zhang (77.21)
21. Morgan Bell (76.74)
22. Katy Jo West (76.57)
23. Kristine Musademba (74.11)
24. Ellie Kawamura (71.38)
25. Tatyana Khazova (70.51)

Remember these names

Though the 2006-2010 quadrennium was a relatively disappointing one for U.S. ladies skaters, there does appear to be a light at the end of the tunnel. This past season, both Mirai Nagasu and Rachael Flatt proved that they can be competitive against the world's best. Here are four new fresh faces hoping to join them on the international scene and make their mark as the next generation.

Christina Gao

• 2009-10 Junior Grand Prix Final bronze medalist
• 2010 U.S. Championships - 5th place

Gao has improved tremendously in the past year since working with Brian Orser, coach of Olympic champ Yu-Na Kim. In 2008, she was dead last in the novice ladies event at Nationals, and in 2009 she was only 3rd in the junior division with a lackluster free skate. Improved mental focus and better jump technique has propelled her to the top group as a junior internationally, as well as on the senior national stage. Her triple flip is one of the best in the world, and her solid triple toe-triple toe combination will be a key element as she hopes to continue her ascent up the rankings. Realistically, Gao has a fantastic shot at making the senior World team next season, especially since Sasha Cohen won't be back and if Flatt decides to focus on college. Her resemblance to a young Michelle Kwan is uncanny.

Agnes Zawadzki

• 2010 Junior World silver medalist
• 2010 U.S. junior National champion

After failing to make the U.S. Championships in 2009, Zawadzki rebounded in a big way this season, taking the U.S. junior title and winning the silver medal at the Junior World Championships last month -- her first-ever international event. Zawadzki is a complete skater, armed with huge jumps, high-scoring spins, solid edges and nice flexibility. Like Gao, she will definitely be contending for a senior national medal in 2011, and could very well find herself on the senior World team as well. By improving her speed and getting her triple flip under control, she will be a force to be reckoned with, both nationally and internationally.

Kiri Baga

• 2009 U.S. novice National champion
• 2-time Junior Grand Prix gold medalist
• 2010 U.S. junior National pewter medalist (4th)

Minnesota's own Kiri Baga had quite the breakthrough season in 2009-10. After winning the '09 novice National title, Baga competed internationally for the first time last fall, winning both of her Junior Grand Prix events before placing 7th at the final. A rough outing at Nationals this year left her in 4th place, but she redeemed herself at the Junior World Championships last month by placing 6th in a deep field. Baga has "future star" written all over her, and her charisma, style and attack is reminiscent of a young Sasha Cohen. She possesses every quality needed to be world champion. All she needs now is time mature and refine her skating, and develop consistency on the more difficult triples (the flip and the Lutz). Keep your eye on this one...

Samantha Cesario

• 2010 U.S. Championships - 15th
• 2010 Gardena Spring Trophy champion (junior)

Speaking of Cohen...it's no secret that young Samantha Cesario looks up to her. Gifted with beautiful lines, exquisite spins and an amazing on-ice presence, Cesario seems to have it all. However, under rotated jumps plagued her at many competitions last season, including the U.S. Championships where she was dinged on nearly every triple jump attempt. She finished 15th in her senior national debut in Spokane this year, but was able to successfully regroup for the Gardena Spring Trophy last week in Italy where she was given full credit for all of her triple jumps. If she continues to improve at that rapid rate over the summer, there's no stopping this girl.

Zawadzki emerges as legitimate world contender

American Agnes Zawadzki's silver medal at last week's World Junior Championships has put her at the center of the figure skating map.

Wait -- Agnes who?

Before this season, not many had heard of her. After winning the National pewter medal during the novice ladies event in 2008, Zawadzki relocated from Chicago to Colorado Springs where she trains under Tom Zakrajsek and alongside reigning U.S. senior champion Rachael Flatt. However, a sub-par short program at last season's Midwestern Sectional Championship left her off the podium and ended her 2009 Nationals bid.

Since then, Zawadzki has come back in a big, big way. She put up massive scores at numerous summer club competitions before winning her regional and sectional events and taking the junior National title two months ago in Spokane. She was clearly the class of the field there, winning both the short and long programs in convincing fashion. At the World Junior Championships last week in The Netherlands, a fall on her triple flip during the short program proved costly and left her in 8th place after that segment. Showing the attack and mental toughness of a seasoned pro, Zawadzki stormed back in the free skate, landing six triple jumps (including two solid triple Lutzes) en route to a silver medal finish. It was her first-ever international event.



Agnes has every single quality needed to be the next great American skater: solid jumps, fantastic spins, great flexibility, wonderful skating skills and a real on-ice presence -- not to mention nerves of steel. Her Lutzes and double Axels are huge; with a little work, I can see her easily tacking triple toe loops onto both.

While she may opt to compete on the Junior Grand Prix circuit next season, I think she could definitely be a contender on the Senior Grand Prix circuit. Additionally, she may find herself on the senior World team next season, especially if Flatt chooses to focus on college more so than skating. Zawadzki is already perhaps the third best ladies skater in the U.S., behind Mirai Nagasu and Flatt, and she will no doubt challenge for the National title next season.

If Nagasu and Zawadzki are the best U.S. ladies of the next quadrennium, I think the future is looking pretty bright. They could make a fantastic 1-2 punch.

American skating's bright new star

In what was her first-ever international competition, 14-year old Kiri Baga stole the show and walked away with the gold medal at the Junior Grand Prix of Dresden, Germany, this weekend.

Baga, the reigning novice National champion out of Bloomington, Minn., shook off the pressure of her JGP debut and performed brilliantly, landing a triple flip for the first time in her short program to amass a total segment score of 56.27, the highest junior ladies' short program score so far this season.

Her second-place 88.41 point free skate gave her a total competition score of 144.68, clinching the gold medal and making her the fourth-highest scoring junior lady on the circuit this season. She bested teammate Angela Maxwell by more than 8 points, though Maxwell was dealing with boot issues and had to resort to using duct tape to give her the strength to sustain her jump landings.

Nonetheless, Baga's victory marks her as a legitimate threat for a spot at the Junior Grand Prix Final in December. She has been assigned a second JGP event in Turkey, and a top four finish there should guarantee her a ticket to the Final. Additionally, a junior National title is well within her reach come January, although the compeition will be fierce (in Spokane, she'll likely face Agnes Zawadzki, Haley Dunne, and Mary Beth Marley, among others).

Aside from her high-scoring spins, spirals and solid jumps, the judges in Dresden apparently liked what they saw from Baga, as they awarded her the highest Program Component Scores in the short program (21.99) and the second-highest in the free skate (45.77). In skating, great basics is a good thing to have, and when the harder triples (loop, Lutz) become consistent for her, Baga will be a threat at the senior level. Her stretch, speed, edging, attack and musicality is truly something to be admired.