2011 U.S. Nationals Fun with Numbers: Ladies

And last but certainly not least, here are the ladies.

For the sole purpose of enjoyment, speculation and "what ifs," I've compiled a list of the average scores of all the senior-level skaters who will be at Nationals next month. Listed below are the pairs overall, short program and free skate scores averaged from all competitions this fall (JGP events, GP events, JGP/GP Finals, Senior B's, Regionals, Sectionals).

Please comment with your thoughts, opinions, Nationals predictions, etc!

Senior Ladies

Average Overall Scores:
1. Alissa Czisny (168.60)
2. Mirai Nagasu (157.01)
3. Christina Gao (155.94)
4. Ashley Wagner (155.38)
5. Agnes Zawadzki (155.20)
6. Vanessa Lam (152.45)

7. Rachael Flatt (150.49)
8. Yasmin Siraj (144.45)
9. Kiri Baga (138.00)
10. Samantha Cesario (134.13)
11. Caroline Zhang (133.18)
12. Amanda Dobbs (131.91)

13. Kristiene Gong (131.44)
14. Melissa Bulanhagui (130.63)
15. Alexe Gilles (127.77)
16. Joelle Forte (126.75)
17. Danielle Kahle (126.63)

18. Felicia Zhang (123.16)
19. Morgan Bell (119.51)
20. Kelsey Traunero (118.92)
21. Keli Zhou (117.14)

22. Kristine Musademba (116.77)
23. Katy Jo West (114.99)
24. Tatyana Khazova (114.81)
25. Ellie Kawamura (109.82)


Average SP Scores:
1. Mirai Nagasu (58.74)
2. Alissa Czisny (58.05)
3. Agnes Zawadzki (57.87)
4. Ashley Wagner (54.55)
5. Vanessa Lam (53.35)
6. Caroline Zhang (50.69)
7. Rachael Flatt (49.97)
8. Kiri Baga (49.92)
9. Christina Gao (49.90)
10. Joelle Forte (47.65)
11. Samantha Cesario (47.27)
12. Kristiene Gong (46.80)
13. Amanda Dobbs (46.28)
14. Melissa Bulanhagui (46.09)
15. Felicia Zhang (45.95)
16. Yasmin Siraj (45.49)
17. Danielle Kahle (44.92)
18. Tatyana Khazova (44.30)
19. Morgan Bell (42.77)
20. Kristine Musademba (42.66)
21. Alexe Gilles (42.43)
22. Keli Zhou (39.30)
23. Kelsey Traunero (39.03)
24. Ellie Kawamura (38.44)
25. Katy Jo West (38.42)


Average FS Scores:
1. Alissa Czisny (110.55)
2. Christina Gao (106.04)
3. Ashley Wagner (100.83)
4. Rachael Flatt (100.52)
5. Vanessa Lam (99.10)
6. Yasmin Siraj (98.96)
7. Mirai Nagasu (98.27)
8. Agnes Zawadzki (97.33)
9. Kiri Baga (88.08)
10. Samantha Cesario (86.86)
11. Amanda Dobbs (85.63)
12. Alexe Gilles (85.34)
13. Kristiene Gong (84.64)
14. Melissa Bulanhagui (84.54)
15. Caroline Zhang (82.49)
16. Danielle Kahle (81.71)
17. Kelsey Traunero (79.89)
18. Joelle Forte (79.10)
19. Keli Zhou (77.84)
20. Felicia Zhang (77.21)
21. Morgan Bell (76.74)
22. Katy Jo West (76.57)
23. Kristine Musademba (74.11)
24. Ellie Kawamura (71.38)
25. Tatyana Khazova (70.51)

Gao, Sotnikova set to duke it out in Austria

Christina Gao of the United States and Russia's Adelina Sotnikova.

Christina Gao isn't resting on her laurels this season.

The 16-year old, who placed 5th in the senior division at the U.S. Championships last season, won three bronze medals on the Junior Grand Prix circuit last season, including one at the Junior Grand Prix Final. She's upped her game considerably this season in hopes of reaching the top step of the podium.

Gao is now armed with a stellar triple flip-triple toe loop combination, one so breathtaking it draws comparisons to the triple-triple combinations of Olympic champ Yu-Na Kim, Gao's former training partner. With a base value of 9.30 points, the combination, if hit cleanly, could very well catapult the young American to the top of the standings this week at the Junior Grand Prix event in Graz, Austria.

She won't go unchallenged, though. Enter Adelina Sotnikova, the 13-year old Russian "wonderbaby" who makes her international debut this week. Sotnikova won the Russian National Championship in 2009 at the tender age of 11, but has struggled with growth spurts and harnessing the pressure of competition since. However, if she goes clean in both programs, she will be hard to beat; her spins, spirals and skating skills are among the best in the junior ranks.

It will be interesting to see which girl comes out on top Saturday afternoon. I suspect both will score higher than the other junior skaters have so far this season, and I think both are early favorites for the Junior Grand Prix Final and Junior Worlds.

Whatever the case may be, the Gao vs. Sotnikova rivalry looks to be one of the most interesting of the young season.

Gao's new free skate:


Sotnikova's free skate from the 2010 Russian Championships:

An uncanny resemblance

In my previous post, I touched briefly on how much Christina Gao resembles a young Michelle Kwan.

Michelle Kwan - 1995 Worlds Short Program


At age 14, the star quality was already evident in Kwan's skating. There is no doubt in my mind that she should have beaten Bobek for the bronze medal that year.

Christina Gao - 2009 Junior Grand Prix Final Short Program


Though still developing her style, one can see glimpses of star power in Gao's skating as well. With Brian Orser as her coach and a solid triple-triple combination under her belt, she's definitely one to watch this quadrennium.

Remember these names

Though the 2006-2010 quadrennium was a relatively disappointing one for U.S. ladies skaters, there does appear to be a light at the end of the tunnel. This past season, both Mirai Nagasu and Rachael Flatt proved that they can be competitive against the world's best. Here are four new fresh faces hoping to join them on the international scene and make their mark as the next generation.

Christina Gao

• 2009-10 Junior Grand Prix Final bronze medalist
• 2010 U.S. Championships - 5th place

Gao has improved tremendously in the past year since working with Brian Orser, coach of Olympic champ Yu-Na Kim. In 2008, she was dead last in the novice ladies event at Nationals, and in 2009 she was only 3rd in the junior division with a lackluster free skate. Improved mental focus and better jump technique has propelled her to the top group as a junior internationally, as well as on the senior national stage. Her triple flip is one of the best in the world, and her solid triple toe-triple toe combination will be a key element as she hopes to continue her ascent up the rankings. Realistically, Gao has a fantastic shot at making the senior World team next season, especially since Sasha Cohen won't be back and if Flatt decides to focus on college. Her resemblance to a young Michelle Kwan is uncanny.

Agnes Zawadzki

• 2010 Junior World silver medalist
• 2010 U.S. junior National champion

After failing to make the U.S. Championships in 2009, Zawadzki rebounded in a big way this season, taking the U.S. junior title and winning the silver medal at the Junior World Championships last month -- her first-ever international event. Zawadzki is a complete skater, armed with huge jumps, high-scoring spins, solid edges and nice flexibility. Like Gao, she will definitely be contending for a senior national medal in 2011, and could very well find herself on the senior World team as well. By improving her speed and getting her triple flip under control, she will be a force to be reckoned with, both nationally and internationally.

Kiri Baga

• 2009 U.S. novice National champion
• 2-time Junior Grand Prix gold medalist
• 2010 U.S. junior National pewter medalist (4th)

Minnesota's own Kiri Baga had quite the breakthrough season in 2009-10. After winning the '09 novice National title, Baga competed internationally for the first time last fall, winning both of her Junior Grand Prix events before placing 7th at the final. A rough outing at Nationals this year left her in 4th place, but she redeemed herself at the Junior World Championships last month by placing 6th in a deep field. Baga has "future star" written all over her, and her charisma, style and attack is reminiscent of a young Sasha Cohen. She possesses every quality needed to be world champion. All she needs now is time mature and refine her skating, and develop consistency on the more difficult triples (the flip and the Lutz). Keep your eye on this one...

Samantha Cesario

• 2010 U.S. Championships - 15th
• 2010 Gardena Spring Trophy champion (junior)

Speaking of Cohen...it's no secret that young Samantha Cesario looks up to her. Gifted with beautiful lines, exquisite spins and an amazing on-ice presence, Cesario seems to have it all. However, under rotated jumps plagued her at many competitions last season, including the U.S. Championships where she was dinged on nearly every triple jump attempt. She finished 15th in her senior national debut in Spokane this year, but was able to successfully regroup for the Gardena Spring Trophy last week in Italy where she was given full credit for all of her triple jumps. If she continues to improve at that rapid rate over the summer, there's no stopping this girl.

Thoughts from the Junior Grand Prix - Poland

Because only a few videos have shown up of the competition at the Junior Grand Prix - Poland last week, there isn't much to write about. Instead, I've come up with five conclusions from the event:

1. Kanako Murakami is Japan's next female skating star. I think she could very well find herself on the 2011 World Championships team for Japan, especially if skaters like Miki Ando, Yukari Nakano and Fumie Suguri retire after this season (although she could still very well make the team even if she was in contention with them).

2. Keegan Messing of the United States is one tough guy. He suffered a deep cut to his hamstring after colliding with U.S. teammate Austin Kanallakan during a practice in Poland, an injury that forced him to walk around the arena on crutches. After an 11th place short program, Messing was 3rd in the free skate and wound up 6th overall.

3. Barring injuries, the fight for gold at the Junior Grand Prix Final and the Junior World Championships appears to be between Russian ice dancers Elena Ilinykh and Nikita Katsalapov and Americans Maia Shibutani and Alex Shibutani. The "Shib sibs" have the highest junior ice dance total so far this season (a 175.95 from the JGP - Lake Placid), but Ilinykh/Katsalapov are close behind after a 171.61 point effort in Poland.

4. It looks like Christina Gao could make a huge splash at the U.S. Championships in January. After solid summer competitions, Gao won the bronze medal in Poland in her international debut. Gao has all the requirements necessary to be a great champion, and though it would be a stretch for her to make this year's Olympic team, she seems to be building nicely towards the Games in Sochi, Russia, in 2014.

5. Japan has another dominant man in Yuzuru Hanyu. He demolished the men's field here, winning by more than 27 points. Like Murakami in the ladies event, Hanyu is a legitimate contender for a World team berth in 2011. His score in Poland makes him the top junior man on the JGP circuit so far this season, and an early favorite for the JGP Final title in December.

Full results from the Junior Grand Prix - Poland can be found here.

Brian Orser: World's most sought after coach?

This is going to be a monumental year for Brian Orser.

Twenty-two years after his last experience at the Games, Orser hopes to coach his protege - Yu-Na Kim of Korea - to an Olympic gold medal. Like Orser did, Kim will enter the competition as the reigning world champion and, like Orser, will be skating on "home ice" in Canada. However, both hope that the similarities end there (Orser was defeated by the United States' Brian Boitano in Calgary in 1988 and had to settle for his second straight Olympic silver medal).

Kim appears to be in a good place, though. Her high-flying triple jumps and massive Program Component Scores allowed her to bury the competition at Worlds this year. At that event, she set records for the highest ladies short program score ever (76.12) and the highest overall score (207.71). She beat silver medalist Joannie Rochette of Canada by over 16 points and her biggest rival, Japan's Mao Asada, by nearly 20 points. Asada, the '08 world champ, fell (literally) to a disappointing 4th place this year.

Regardless of the scores, Kim has clearly flourished under Orser's tutelage. So much so that American Adam Rippon moved to Toronto to train with him last fall as well. With Orser at the boards, Rippon defended his World Junior title in March, hitting two picture perfect triple Axels and accumulating an astounding competition score of 222.00. That marked him as the fourth-highest scoring U.S. man internationally last season (behind veterans Evan Lysacek, Jeremy Abbott and Johnny Weir), and distinguishes him as a legitimate contender for a 2010 Olympic berth.

Orser's influence doesn't end there. His most recent student is 2009 U.S. junior bronze medalist Christina Gao. As a novice in 2008, Gao fell numerous times and finished 12th (a.k.a., last) in the national competition. In her '09 junior freeskate last January, she again fell three times but hung on for the bronze medal in an underwhelming and relatively weak field. However, her months spent with Orser in Canada have proven to be beneficial already. Gao competed in the Skate Detroit event in late July and reeled off six effortless triple jumps in her long program, racking up more than 108 points for the program and earning a total competition score of over 164 points.

The improvement in all three of these skaters since being coached by Orser has been more than just technical. His friendly demeanor and calming presence has elevated Kim to greatness already in her short senior career (two Grand Prix Final titles, a Four Continents championship, two World bronze medals, and a World championship). Rippon also appears to be on the right track, and 15-year old Gao is certainly poised to make a splash in her senior National debut this season as well.

When ya got it, ya got it, and Orser has definitely proven his worth as an elite coach.