2011 U.S. Nationals Fun with Numbers: Ladies

And last but certainly not least, here are the ladies.

For the sole purpose of enjoyment, speculation and "what ifs," I've compiled a list of the average scores of all the senior-level skaters who will be at Nationals next month. Listed below are the pairs overall, short program and free skate scores averaged from all competitions this fall (JGP events, GP events, JGP/GP Finals, Senior B's, Regionals, Sectionals).

Please comment with your thoughts, opinions, Nationals predictions, etc!

Senior Ladies

Average Overall Scores:
1. Alissa Czisny (168.60)
2. Mirai Nagasu (157.01)
3. Christina Gao (155.94)
4. Ashley Wagner (155.38)
5. Agnes Zawadzki (155.20)
6. Vanessa Lam (152.45)

7. Rachael Flatt (150.49)
8. Yasmin Siraj (144.45)
9. Kiri Baga (138.00)
10. Samantha Cesario (134.13)
11. Caroline Zhang (133.18)
12. Amanda Dobbs (131.91)

13. Kristiene Gong (131.44)
14. Melissa Bulanhagui (130.63)
15. Alexe Gilles (127.77)
16. Joelle Forte (126.75)
17. Danielle Kahle (126.63)

18. Felicia Zhang (123.16)
19. Morgan Bell (119.51)
20. Kelsey Traunero (118.92)
21. Keli Zhou (117.14)

22. Kristine Musademba (116.77)
23. Katy Jo West (114.99)
24. Tatyana Khazova (114.81)
25. Ellie Kawamura (109.82)


Average SP Scores:
1. Mirai Nagasu (58.74)
2. Alissa Czisny (58.05)
3. Agnes Zawadzki (57.87)
4. Ashley Wagner (54.55)
5. Vanessa Lam (53.35)
6. Caroline Zhang (50.69)
7. Rachael Flatt (49.97)
8. Kiri Baga (49.92)
9. Christina Gao (49.90)
10. Joelle Forte (47.65)
11. Samantha Cesario (47.27)
12. Kristiene Gong (46.80)
13. Amanda Dobbs (46.28)
14. Melissa Bulanhagui (46.09)
15. Felicia Zhang (45.95)
16. Yasmin Siraj (45.49)
17. Danielle Kahle (44.92)
18. Tatyana Khazova (44.30)
19. Morgan Bell (42.77)
20. Kristine Musademba (42.66)
21. Alexe Gilles (42.43)
22. Keli Zhou (39.30)
23. Kelsey Traunero (39.03)
24. Ellie Kawamura (38.44)
25. Katy Jo West (38.42)


Average FS Scores:
1. Alissa Czisny (110.55)
2. Christina Gao (106.04)
3. Ashley Wagner (100.83)
4. Rachael Flatt (100.52)
5. Vanessa Lam (99.10)
6. Yasmin Siraj (98.96)
7. Mirai Nagasu (98.27)
8. Agnes Zawadzki (97.33)
9. Kiri Baga (88.08)
10. Samantha Cesario (86.86)
11. Amanda Dobbs (85.63)
12. Alexe Gilles (85.34)
13. Kristiene Gong (84.64)
14. Melissa Bulanhagui (84.54)
15. Caroline Zhang (82.49)
16. Danielle Kahle (81.71)
17. Kelsey Traunero (79.89)
18. Joelle Forte (79.10)
19. Keli Zhou (77.84)
20. Felicia Zhang (77.21)
21. Morgan Bell (76.74)
22. Katy Jo West (76.57)
23. Kristine Musademba (74.11)
24. Ellie Kawamura (71.38)
25. Tatyana Khazova (70.51)

Baga back in top form

After being sidelined with a stress fracture this summer, Minnesota's Kiri Baga came back in a big way this weekend at the Junior Grand Prix event in Japan.

Perhaps more impressive than her silver-medal finish is how consistent her triple jumps have become. Baga landed a triple Lutz-double toe loop combination for the first time in her career in the short program, and followed that up by landing 2 triple Lutzes (and a triple flip) in her free skate -- another milestone for the 15-year old American.

Her performances weren't perfect, though. She had trouble with the double Axel in both programs, falling on it in the free skate and receiving negative Grades of Execution on some of her other jump elements as well. What's important, however, is the fact that she had such a strong showing (including a 6-triple free skate) after such limited training time this season. Baga will skate in again at the final JGP event in Ostrava, Czech Republic, in three weeks. She'll need a podium finish once again to ensure herself of another trip to the Junior Grand Prix Final in December.

Baga appears to be turning into a rare breed of skater: one that shines in the face of adversity and has more grit and determination in her entire body than many of us do in our pinky finger.

Watch out for her this season -- she could very well be a top 8 finisher come Nationals in January.

Junior Grand Prix season kicks off next week in Courchevel

Eight U.S. skaters are headed to Courchevel, France, next week for the opening event of the 2010-11 ISU Junior Grand Prix of Figure Skating Series.

In the men's event, reigning junior National champion Jason Brown and bronze medalist Max Aaron make their Junior Grand Prix debuts, where they'll face a relatively weak field overall. Aaron's triple Axel should keep him in the medal picture, while Brown's triple/triple combinations and fantastic skating skills make him the early gold medal favorite. The top international contender for the men is Canada's Andrei Rogozine, who also wields a strong triple Axel.

For the ladies, U.S. teens Yasmin Siraj and Nina Jiang will be up against a much more accomplished field of skaters. Russia's Polina Shelepen, who won twice on the JGP last season, is back once again. If she can maintain the solid jumping and consistency she showed last season, Shelepen should steamroll the competition here. Siraj, the current U.S. junior silver medalist is a very good skater, but neither she nor Jiang are at the level of the Russian jump-wise yet. Russia's other entry, Roza Sheveleva (replacing an injured Anna Ovcharova), is also a legitimate medal threat.

While the podiums are fairly easily predicted in the singles events, the same cannot be said for the ice dance event. The Americans will be well represented, though both teams could face an uphill climb to the medal stand. 2010 U.S. novice champions Alexandra Aldridge & Daniel Eaton are very good athletes, though both are untested so far internationally. Anastasia Cannuscio & Colin McManus, 10th in the U.S. junior division last year, are back on the JGP series after placing 7th in their lone event last fall. With about 6-7 teams so evenly matched in the event, it really is anyone's title to take.

As always, the Junior Grand Prix series brings together the top junior skaters from around the globe in weekly competition. There are seven events this year, with the top eight point-getters at the conclusion of the series being invited to skate in the Junior Grand Prix Final, held this year in Beijing, China.

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Minnesota's Kiri Baga, who won two gold medals on the JGP circuit last season, sustained a stress fracture over the summer and resumed training six weeks ago. She is said to be progressing well, and is competing her new programs at the Minnesota State Championships this weekend. If all goes well, Baga, one of the United States' top juniors, should definitely receive at least one JGP event.

Remember these names

Though the 2006-2010 quadrennium was a relatively disappointing one for U.S. ladies skaters, there does appear to be a light at the end of the tunnel. This past season, both Mirai Nagasu and Rachael Flatt proved that they can be competitive against the world's best. Here are four new fresh faces hoping to join them on the international scene and make their mark as the next generation.

Christina Gao

• 2009-10 Junior Grand Prix Final bronze medalist
• 2010 U.S. Championships - 5th place

Gao has improved tremendously in the past year since working with Brian Orser, coach of Olympic champ Yu-Na Kim. In 2008, she was dead last in the novice ladies event at Nationals, and in 2009 she was only 3rd in the junior division with a lackluster free skate. Improved mental focus and better jump technique has propelled her to the top group as a junior internationally, as well as on the senior national stage. Her triple flip is one of the best in the world, and her solid triple toe-triple toe combination will be a key element as she hopes to continue her ascent up the rankings. Realistically, Gao has a fantastic shot at making the senior World team next season, especially since Sasha Cohen won't be back and if Flatt decides to focus on college. Her resemblance to a young Michelle Kwan is uncanny.

Agnes Zawadzki

• 2010 Junior World silver medalist
• 2010 U.S. junior National champion

After failing to make the U.S. Championships in 2009, Zawadzki rebounded in a big way this season, taking the U.S. junior title and winning the silver medal at the Junior World Championships last month -- her first-ever international event. Zawadzki is a complete skater, armed with huge jumps, high-scoring spins, solid edges and nice flexibility. Like Gao, she will definitely be contending for a senior national medal in 2011, and could very well find herself on the senior World team as well. By improving her speed and getting her triple flip under control, she will be a force to be reckoned with, both nationally and internationally.

Kiri Baga

• 2009 U.S. novice National champion
• 2-time Junior Grand Prix gold medalist
• 2010 U.S. junior National pewter medalist (4th)

Minnesota's own Kiri Baga had quite the breakthrough season in 2009-10. After winning the '09 novice National title, Baga competed internationally for the first time last fall, winning both of her Junior Grand Prix events before placing 7th at the final. A rough outing at Nationals this year left her in 4th place, but she redeemed herself at the Junior World Championships last month by placing 6th in a deep field. Baga has "future star" written all over her, and her charisma, style and attack is reminiscent of a young Sasha Cohen. She possesses every quality needed to be world champion. All she needs now is time mature and refine her skating, and develop consistency on the more difficult triples (the flip and the Lutz). Keep your eye on this one...

Samantha Cesario

• 2010 U.S. Championships - 15th
• 2010 Gardena Spring Trophy champion (junior)

Speaking of Cohen...it's no secret that young Samantha Cesario looks up to her. Gifted with beautiful lines, exquisite spins and an amazing on-ice presence, Cesario seems to have it all. However, under rotated jumps plagued her at many competitions last season, including the U.S. Championships where she was dinged on nearly every triple jump attempt. She finished 15th in her senior national debut in Spokane this year, but was able to successfully regroup for the Gardena Spring Trophy last week in Italy where she was given full credit for all of her triple jumps. If she continues to improve at that rapid rate over the summer, there's no stopping this girl.

American skating's bright new star

In what was her first-ever international competition, 14-year old Kiri Baga stole the show and walked away with the gold medal at the Junior Grand Prix of Dresden, Germany, this weekend.

Baga, the reigning novice National champion out of Bloomington, Minn., shook off the pressure of her JGP debut and performed brilliantly, landing a triple flip for the first time in her short program to amass a total segment score of 56.27, the highest junior ladies' short program score so far this season.

Her second-place 88.41 point free skate gave her a total competition score of 144.68, clinching the gold medal and making her the fourth-highest scoring junior lady on the circuit this season. She bested teammate Angela Maxwell by more than 8 points, though Maxwell was dealing with boot issues and had to resort to using duct tape to give her the strength to sustain her jump landings.

Nonetheless, Baga's victory marks her as a legitimate threat for a spot at the Junior Grand Prix Final in December. She has been assigned a second JGP event in Turkey, and a top four finish there should guarantee her a ticket to the Final. Additionally, a junior National title is well within her reach come January, although the compeition will be fierce (in Spokane, she'll likely face Agnes Zawadzki, Haley Dunne, and Mary Beth Marley, among others).

Aside from her high-scoring spins, spirals and solid jumps, the judges in Dresden apparently liked what they saw from Baga, as they awarded her the highest Program Component Scores in the short program (21.99) and the second-highest in the free skate (45.77). In skating, great basics is a good thing to have, and when the harder triples (loop, Lutz) become consistent for her, Baga will be a threat at the senior level. Her stretch, speed, edging, attack and musicality is truly something to be admired.

Notes from Nebelhorn & Musings from Minsk

The Nebelhorn Trophy wrapped up Saturday in Oberstdorf, Germany, and the Olympic field is set -- sort of.

Earning the remaining spots were:
Men: Switzerland, Austria, Germany, North Korea, Romania, Finland
Ladies: China, Hungary, Slovenia, Austria, Spain, Belgium
Pairs: Switzerland, Poland, Estonia, Italy
Ice Dance: China, Czech Republic, Estonia, Georgia, Hungary

Although it is still unknown as to which skaters will be representing these countries (along with the countries who qualified spots at the World Championships in March), the Olympic picture is slowly developing. One skater who will most likely be there is 2006 Olympic silver medalist Stephane Lambiel of Switzerland. Lambiel buried the competition here in Oberstdorf, and now only has to pass the requirements of the Swiss Olympic Committee (which he will surely do) in order to skate in Vancouver.

On the ladies' side, American Alissa Czisny won her second straight Nebelhorn title, but only on the strength of her short program. She was only credited with two clean triples in her free skate in what was a messy and error-prone event overall. China's Yan Liu won the free skate and placed third overall to qualify a spot for her country in Vancouver, while Hungary's Julia Sebestyen placed fourth but still earned a berth to her fourth consecutive Olympic Games.

In ice dancing, United States champions Meryl Davis and Charlie White performed their "Phantom of the Opera" free dance for the first time internationally this season, and accumulated over 100 points for it. Their total competition score of 200.46 points was more than 30 points higher than the second place finishers, Alexandra Zaretski and Roman Zaretski of Israel. Davis and White's total score at Nebelhorn was .10 points higher than what they received at the World Championshps last March, but would have been enough to earn them the bronze medal at that event. Clearly, they are already on the right track this season.

Over in Minsk, Belarus, the fourth Junior Grand Prix event of the season wrapped up. Russia's Polina Shelepen delivered another solid free skate to win her second JGP event of the season. Japan's Yuki Nishino was second, and Ksenia Makarova of Russia was third. Kristiene Gong was the top U.S. lady, finishing 4th.

In the men's event, Minnesota-native Eliot Halverson was the top American finisher, placing 5th. Russia's Artur Gachinski and China's Nan Song were in a class of their own, each finishing with over 178 points and winning gold and silver, respectively.

China went 1-2 in the pairs event, with Canadians Hole/Johnson winning the bronze medal after taking gold in Lake Placid last earlier this season. Rachel Tibbetts and Collin Brubaker won the silver medal in ice dancing - their first-ever JGP medal - behind Russians Ksenia Monko and Kirill Khaliavin.

Shelepen has mathematically qualified for the Junior Grand Prix Final, and it appears as though Makarova will qualify as well. Hole/Johnson have also qualified in the pairs event.

The Junior Grand Prix series continues this week in Dresden, Germany. Angela Maxwell (United States) and Isabelle Olsson (Sweden) are both medal winners already this season, and both will be in contention in Germany. Minnesota-native Kiri Baga makes her international debut, and with her strong spins, spirals and jumps, could definitely factor in for a medal.