U.S. Nationals: Senior ladies practice notes (Friday 1/22)

I attended the championship ladies free skate practice today. Below are some jump notes and impressions:

Alexe Gilles looks very strong. She hit numerous triple Lutzes and triple flips, and had a mostly clean run through. She looked relaxed and confident, and I think she will rebound very nicely after last night's rough short program.

Sasha Cohen looked like a completely different skater after her stunning short program last night. During her run through, she opened with a triple Lutz-double toe-double toe combination (wrong edge take off on the Lutz), but then fell hard on the triple loop. She also hit a nice triple flip. Sasha did not do a very complete run through (even leaving out much of the choreography) and this may come back to haunt her. She has always been a strong short program skater, but the real test will come tomorrow in the free skate which she hasn't trained as much as the other girls on the competition.

Alissa Czisny looked confident, hitting all of her jumps during her run through. I didn't see any major errors from her; she looks in prime form.

Christina Gao could be a surprise threat tomorrow. She hit a number of beautiful triple-triple combinations and had a mostly clean run through as well. She is looking confident and much improved under the tutelage of Brian Orser.

Amanda Dobbs had a rough practice. I don't think she'll be able to maintain her current 6th place standing.

Rachael Flatt had a decent run through. She turned out of the landing on her double Axel (it looked very close to the boards) and then doubled a planned triple flip combination. She regrouped to hit her last four jump elements, and also hit many other jumps during the session, including a perfectly clean triple Lutz-triple loop combination. She coudl very well take the title tomorrow.

Mirai Nagasu looked the best I have ever seen her. I did not see one underrotated jump. Her technique is so refined and pure now; she is able to rotate triples with ease and confidence. She also looked very happy which was nice to see. Her run through had one fall, but during the session she also landed multiple double Axel-triple toe combinations and even one (clean) triple Lutz-triple toe.

Melissa Bulanhagui looks quite strong, too. Her triple Lutz is a thing of beauty, and her run-through was excellent. Look for her to move up in the standings tomorrow.

Emily Hughes had a rough practice session, and an even worse run through. She doubled or singled almost every triple attempt. She did land a triple toe, but it looked very suspicious rotation-wise. She won't factor into the medals, or even the top 8 really.

Bebe Liang looked ok. I saw one fall on a triple loop but I missed the rest of her run through. I also missed Ashley Wagner's run through, but I heard that she did fairly well.

'Tis the season for Grand Prix Final withdrawals

With the six regular season events all wrapped up, the Grand Prix Final is set to take place next weekend in Tokyo, Japan. The top six point-scorers in each discipline will compete, minus a few exceptions.

Americans Tanith Belbin and Ben Agosto are out of the dance event after Tanith required emergency oral surgery this week. Though they have received a lot of flack for pulling out of the Final, I don't fault them at all. It can take up to a few weeks to recover from wisdom tooth surgery, and if they can't be at their absolute best, there is no reason why they should compete and risk a poor performance. Their scores this season rank them below Canadians Tessa Virtue and Scott Moir, as well as U.S. champions Meryl Davis and Charlie White. Hopefully Belbin and Agosto will rework their programs and make sure their levels are up to par so they can compete with their two younger rivals.

Belbin and Agosto's replacements, Jana Khokhlova and Sergei Novitski, are also out of the Final, as she has come down with the flu. Canadians Vanessa Crone and Paul Porier, the second alternates, will compete in their place.

France's Brian Joubert is also out of the men's event after suffering a cut on his foot in training. He is replaced by Tomas Verner of the Czech Republic, the silver medalist from the Trophee Eric Bompard event earlier this fall.

Grand Prix Final Competitors:
Men: Nobunari Oda (JPN), Evan Lysacek (USA), Daisuke Takahashi (JPN), Jeremy Abbott (USA), Johnny Weir (USA), Tomas Verner (CZE)
Ladies: Yu-Na Kim (KOR), Miki Ando (JPN), Joannie Rochette (CAN), Alena Leonova (RUS), Ashley Wagner (USA), Akiko Suzuki (JPN)
Pairs: Shen/Zhao (CHN), Savchenko/Szolkowy (GER), Pang/Tong (CHN), Kavaguti/Smirnov (RUS), Mukhortova/Trankov (RUS), Zhang/Zhang (CHN)
Dance: Virtue/Moir (CAN), Davis/White (USA), Pechalat/Bourzat (FRA), Kerr/Kerr (GBR), Cappellini/Lanotte (ITA), Crone/Poirier (CAN)

Injured Cohen out of this week's Skate America

Sasha Cohen withdrew from Skate America today, citing a nagging case of tendinitis in her right calf. The 2006 Olympic silver medalist also withdrew from her first planned Grand Prix event - Trophee Eric Bompard - a month ago, meaning that her first event of the season will be the U.S. Nationals in January. This certainly doesn't bode well for her hopes of making a third Olympic team.

While there's no doubt that a five-triple jump Cohen could be competitive with many of the top ladies today, she needed to test her programs in front of an international panel of judges and in front of an audience. After a three-year hiatus from competitive skating, it was crucial that she get back into a competitive mindset, and her two fall events would have given her the perfect opportunity to do that. Now, should she show up at Nationals, Cohen will be competing against the top U.S. ladies for only two Olympic spots - ladies that have been gaining mileage on their programs this season, feedback from judges, and confidence in their ability to perform them well. I know injuries happen, but Cohen should have started her comeback earlier than this past June if she hopes to make a return trip to the Games.

Even if she shows up in Spokane and wins a medal, there's certainly no guarantee that she would be granted a spot on the team. This year, U.S. Figure Skating will not choose the Olympic team based solely on the results of Nationals (not even the gold medalist is guaranteed a spot). Instead, the team will be chosen based upon the results of a number of events: the Grand Prix series, the Grand Prix Final (should any qualify), and at last year's World championships. Based upon this criteria, Ashley Wagner currently looks to be one of the front-runners for the team, as she has medaled in both of her Grand Prix events and has an excellent chance at making the Final in Tokyo in December. Rachael Flatt, although not stellar at the Cup of China, looks poised to make the team as well, thanks to her consistency and a solid fifth-place finish at her first-ever Worlds last March.

Flatt competes again at Skate America this weekend, where her main competition will come from Korea's Yu-Na Kim. A silver-medal finish in Lake Placid, NY, will further increase her chances of making the team, though she, and the rest of the American women, will still need to deliver at Nationals.

As for Cohen, her comeback just got more complicated, though not entirely impossible. After all, she does have the most experience of any of the currently competing U.S. ladies and she is the only one with Olympic experience. On the other hand, she has never been one to handle pressure well, and if she's still struggling with injury come January, the chances that she'll be on top of her game are slim.

I can't think of a year when the ladies event was more unpredictable than it is this year...

Joubert first after exciting men's short program; Wagner wins round one in Nagano

Talk about two extremely different events.

Frenchman Brian Joubert rebounded from a disastrous outing in Paris three weeks ago to win the men's short program at the NHK Trophy in Nagano, Japan. His score of 85.35 is the top men's score this season, a score he achieved largely due to the strength of his quadruple toe-loop/triple toe-loop combination. He currently sits 2.35 points ahead of American Jeremy Abbott, who beat his personal best short program score by nearly five points. Abbott's innovative program to an electric guitar cover of the Beatles' "A Day in the Life" is absolutely amazing, and there is no way his Program Component Scores should have been third-best behind Joubert and Japan's Daisuke Takahashi, who had a rough landing on his solo triple Lutz and a hard fall in his circular footwork sequence.

Three-time U.S. champion Johnny Weir is third after the short, landing all four of his planned triple jumps and earning a new season's best score of 78.35. Takahashi, the 2007 World silver medalist is close behind with 78.18 points, while teammate Takahiko Kozuka, who won silver two weeks ago in Russia, is fifth with 74.05 points. American Adam Rippon - who turns 20 next week - took a spill on a triple Axel and is currently 8th, some 11.20 points out of medal contention.

With a combined seven World championship medals among them and numerous Grand Prix titles, the men's event seemed more like a final flight at the World championships than only the fourth event of the season. It was an entirely different story for the ladies, however.

American teen Ashley Wagner nabbed the top spot after the short program, defeating 2007 World champion and current World bronze medalist Miki Ando. While Wagner wasn't completely clean (her double Axel was severely underrotated), her skate was still enough to earn a season's best score and beat out Ando, who took a spill on her triple flip and quite possibly underrotated her triple Lutz also. Yukari Nakano is third after bailing out of her triple Lutz and not completing the combination. Reigning European champion Laura Lepisto of Finland is fourth, and Russia's Alena Leonova rounds out the top five with 52.34 points after falling on her triple Lutz (a fall that was timed perfectly to the music, though).

The event was so lackluster that not one of the ladies in the field even managed to break 30 points for her Technical Elements Score. I know the Olympics are still three months away, but it is already November and still not one skater from any country has proven that she is able to compete with Korea's Yu-Na Kim. I know injuries happen and "the ice is slippery," but it is nearly impossible to predict who will medal come February.

Japan's Akiko Suzuki won the Cup of China last week with two nearly perfect programs, but she has never even been to a World Championship before. Will she be able to handle the pressure of the Olympics if she makes the team? Mao Asada has had a horrific fall season, but will she be regrouped and ready by the time the Japanese Nationals come around at the end of December? Could she be left off the Olympic team if she continues to skate poorly?

The North American outlook isn't very clear, either. Canada's Joannie Rochette won a World silver medal last season, but her performances in China last week were far from world-class. Was it just jetlag or is she already feeling the pressure this season? If that's the case, how will she be able to handle the pressure of competing at home in Vancouver? The American ladies picture is still cloudy as ever, with Rachael Flatt, Mirai Nagasu, Caroline Zhang and Alissa Czisny all underperforming so far this season. Could Wagner be the strongest candidate for the team? And lets not even discuss the European ladies, none of which look remotely close to Olympic caliber yet, either.

There's so many questions yet to be answered. The rest of the Grand Prix season will be incredibly interesting, all leading up to what may be the most unpredictable Olympic Games ever. Stay tuned!

Wagner surprises with silver medal finish

American skater Ashley Wagner made a huge statement Saturday at the Rostelecom Cup: she's still in the game.

Wagner, the 2008 U.S. bronze medalist and fourth place finisher from last year dazzled in her free skate at the second Grand Prix event of the season, electrifying the crowd and coming from behind to defeat 2008 World champion Mao Asada and reigning U.S. champion Alissa Czisny.

Her free skate, set to music from Borodulin's "Prince Igor," contained superb spins, solid spirals and an arsenal of strong jumps. Wagner landed three double Axels in her program, and was credited with four clean triple jumps (although her triple Lutz was assigned a wrong-edge deduction and received a Grade of Execution of -2). Despite all this, she earned a personal best 108.81 points for her program, and rebounded from a fifth place short program to take second overall. Japanese skater and 2007 World champion Miki Ando won the event, while her countrywoman Asada continued her downward slide and only managed a fifth place finish overall. Her chances of making the Grand Prix Final in Tokyo in December are now very much in jeopardy.

While Wagner shone, Czisny fizzled in a disappointing free skate in which she was only credited with three clean triple jumps and fell on a downgraded triple flip. She dropped from second to fourth place overall.

The U.S. ladies field is so wildly unpredictable right now with, realistically, six ladies fighting for only two Olympic berths. Though Rachael Flatt and Mirai Nagasu have yet to compete this season (they will be at this week's Cup of China), Wagner has set the early standard. Her total score of 163.97 from Moscow is the fifth-highest ladies score of the season, though skaters like Flatt and Nagasu could certainly match and surpass it. With the Olympic team being chosen on the results of many competitions throughout the year, there's more pressure than ever on the U.S. ladies to be near flawless at each outing.

U.S. ladies look to rebound after lackluster quadrennium

It's no secret that the last three years haven't gone so well for the American ladies on the senior international stage. Up against Korean phenom Yu-Na Kim and a strong Japanese contingent in Mao Asada, Miki Ando and Yukari Nakano, U.S. female skaters have struggled to capture gold in international events. Add in Canadian star Joannie Rochette and Italy's Carolina Kostner, and even making the podium has been a daunting task.

I don't think it's entirely fair, however, to say that the talent pool has dried up in American ladies figure skating. Michelle Kwan's decade of dominance and Sasha Cohen's strong international record may have spoiled us a bit, and when we don't hear the "Star Spangled Banner" play at World championships or Grand Prix events, we begin to assume that our skaters just aren't that good.

In my opinion, that's a selfish mentality to have. We have so many bright young hopes in the United States, but that's exactly what they are -- young. Rachael Flatt just turned 17 last month, but she has already claimed two National silver medals, a Junior World title and, in March, skated her way to an astonishing 5th place at the World Championships. Mirai Nagasu won the 2008 U.S. title at age 14, and has two Junior World medals to her credit as well. 16-year old Caroline Zhang has three Junior World medals -- including a gold in 2007 -- and finished third in the World Team Trophy in April behind Asada and Rochette, the current World silver medalist who she only trailed by less than seven points.

And that's not even half the talent. Ashley Wagner, Angela Maxwell and Alexe Gilles have all recorded strong showings on the senior and/or junior international stages. Five of the possible eight spots at last year's Junior Grand Prix Final were won by U.S. ladies, and Becky Bereswill and Gilles finished 1st and 3rd there, respectively. American women have won eight of the last nine Junior World medals, and swept the podium in 2007 and 2008.

The purpose of this post isn't to make excuses for the performances/results of U.S. ladies, or to try and make it seem like solid junior results will result in senior international medals the next season, because many times they don't. However, I think it is important to realize that the absence of Kwan and Cohen have thrust our relatively inexperienced skaters into the spotlight. Yes, the results haven't been ideal since the 2006 Olympics, and yes, the United States only qualified two women for the upcoming Vancouver games, but I think there's been a lot of learning experiences and many positives to take away from the past three years.

In order to be more competitive with the top international ladies, our American girls must focus on fully rotating their triple jumps in order to avoid harsh downgrades, increasing their speed (which will then boost their Program Component Scores) and putting two clean programs together. Staying healthy and injury free will also be important to achieving better international results.

Anything is possible in Vancouver, even an American lady sneaking in for an Olympic medal. It will take two perfect programs and probably some mistakes from a few of the top skaters, but I'm not counting anyone out yet. The uber-consistent Flatt and Zhang will definitely be podium threats if they qualify for the Games, and one can't forget Nagasu or Wagner, either; both have a style that is very well received by international judges.

With a few more years of experience and some growth, there is no doubt in my mind that our girls will be vying for gold medals once more.